Doma United vs Barau FC
Match result probability Model pick: Doma United win
Doma United winPick
34.7%
Draw
30.9%
Barau FC win
34.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes44.5%
No55.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%
How much we know
Doma United history0 matches
Barau FC history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Doma United
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Doma United are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Barau FC are rated 33 Elo points higher
Elo 1,533 against 1,500. On rating alone Barau FC would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barau FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1533.4
0
ELO · Matches
39
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1533.4
1533.4
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-33.40
Current ELO Difference
33.40
0.45
Expected score
0.55
0
History Matches
39
—
Residual Mean
0.04
—
Overperformance
52.71
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
2.00
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Goals against per game
0.80
—
Win rate
60.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.80
—
Goals for per game
1.50
—
Goals against per game
0.70
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
39
—
PPG
1.41
—
Win rate
35.9%
—
Draw rate
33.3%
—
Loss rate
30.8%
—
Over 1.5 rate
59.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
—
Over 3.5 rate
10.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
20
—
PPG
0.70
—
Win rate
10.0%
—
Draw rate
40.0%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
55.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
10.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
0
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
0.97
—
Scoring rate
48.7%
—
BTTS rate
33.3%
—
Goals for per game
0.45
—
Scoring rate
25.0%
—
BTTS rate
25.0%
0
History Matches
39
—
Goals Mean
0.97
—
Goals Std
1.17
—
Scored 1+ rate
48.7%
—
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
—
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.45
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
0.85
—
Conceding rate
61.5%
—
Goals against per game
1.10
—
Conceding rate
70.0%
0
History Matches
39
—
Conceded Mean
0.85
—
Conceded Std
0.77
—
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
51.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
51.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
39
—
Result entropy
1.00
—
Goal Difference Std
1.40
—
Stability score
0.18
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
38
0
Lead Matches
8
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
10
—
Non-loss rate
30.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
156.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
27
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
0
Long Rest History Matches
11
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.09
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-33.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-39
History Matches-20
History Matches-39
History Matches-39
History Matches-39
Eligible Matches-38
Lead Matches-8
Trailing Matches-10
Halftime Coverage Matches-38
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-27
Long Rest History Matches-11
Current Team ELO-33.40
Current Opponent ELO33.40
Current ELO Difference-66.80
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-39
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Doma United
D
Doma United2–2Ikorodu City31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · hit D
Doma United1–1Kun Khalifat FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Kun Khalifat FC 39% · missed W
Doma United2–0Sporting Lagos30 Aug · home
Pick: Doma United 50% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Barau FC
D
Niger Tornadoes0–0Barau FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Niger Tornadoes 49% · missed D
Barau FC1–1Kwara United25 Oct · home
Pick: Barau FC 34% · missed D
Rivers United0–0Barau FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Rivers United 56% · missed L
Bendel Insurance4–1Barau FC4 Oct · away
Pick: Bendel Insurance 50% · hit W
Barau FC3–1Nasarawa United30 Aug · home
Pick: Draw 36% · missed About this match
Doma United and Barau FC meet in NPFL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Pantami Stadium, Gombe. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Doma United win 34.7%, draw 30.9%, Barau FC win 34.4%. The pick is Doma United win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.4%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.