Dravinja vs Krka
Match result probability Model pick: Krka win
Dravinja win
33.5%
Draw
28.3%
Krka winPick
38.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.3%
No48.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%
How much we know
Dravinja history49 matches
Krka history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Krka
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 16:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why Krka are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,455 against 1,440. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.08 goals a game over 49 matches for Dravinja, against 1.10 over 51 for Krka.
-
Defences are close
Dravinja concede 1.47 a game, Krka 1.51.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
51% of Dravinja matches, against 55% for Krka. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1455.3
ELO
1440.4
49
ELO · Matches
51
1455.3
Current Team ELO
1440.4
1440.4
Current Opponent ELO
1455.3
14.93
Current ELO Difference
-14.93
0.52
Expected score
0.48
49
History Matches
51
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
46.79
Overperformance
45.92
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
2.00
1.10
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.51
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
51
1.14
PPG
1.10
30.6%
Win rate
25.5%
22.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
46.9%
Loss rate
41.2%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.9%
16.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
25
1.42
PPG
1.04
37.5%
Win rate
20.0%
29.2%
Draw rate
44.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
36.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.10
65.3%
Scoring rate
60.8%
49.0%
BTTS rate
45.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.16
66.7%
Scoring rate
56.0%
54.2%
BTTS rate
40.0%
0.33
Goals for per game
0.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
49
History Matches
51
1.08
Goals Mean
1.10
1.16
Goals Std
1.12
65.3%
Scored 1+ rate
60.8%
26.5%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.51
77.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.28
75.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
49
History Matches
51
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.21
Conceded Std
1.41
46.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.1%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.5%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
51
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.83
4.17
Stability score
1.70
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
50
11
Lead Matches
14
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.74
21
Trailing Matches
12
19.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.06
Rest days
83.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
0.33
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.36
Portability PPG Range
1.67
44.94
Portability Score
44.98
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO14.93
PPG0.04
GF-0.02
GA-0.04
PPG-0.33
PPG0.38
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate4.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.71
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.81
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score2.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.32
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate26.6%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate1.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.31
Portability Score-0.04
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO14.93
Current Opponent ELO-14.93
Current ELO Difference29.85
Expected score0.04
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Dravinja
W
Dravinja1–0Dekani31 Oct · home
Pick: Dekani 39% · missed W
Krško0–6Dravinja28 Oct · away
Pick: Dravinja 42% · hit W
Dravinja2–1Jesenice16 Oct · home
Pick: Dravinja 46% · hit L
Dravinja1–4Triglav29 Aug · home
Pick: Triglav 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Krka
W
Triglav2–4Krka2 Nov · away
Pick: Triglav 67% · missed W
Krka3–0Dren Vrhnika27 Oct · home
Pick: Dren Vrhnika 58% · missed L
Bilje2–0Krka17 Oct · away
Pick: Bilje 46% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Dravinja and Krka meet in 2. SNL on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Dravinja win 33.5%, draw 28.3%, Krka win 38.2%. The pick is Krka win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.6%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.