ScoreProb
2. SNL Slovenia Round 15 2026

Primorje vs Jesenice

Primorje Home · Elo 1,385
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jesenice Away · Elo 1,395
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Primorje win
Primorje winPick
50.2%
Draw
18.8%
Jesenice win
31.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%

How much we know

Primorje history65 matches
Jesenice history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Primorje are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,385 against 1,395. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Primorje score more

    1.05 goals a game over 65 matches for Primorje, against 0.88 over 33 for Jesenice.

  • Defences are close

    Primorje concede 1.97 a game, Jesenice 2.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Primorje matches, against 55% for Jesenice. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Primorje
Jesenice@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1384.7
ELO
1394.9
65
ELO · Matches
33
1384.7
Current Team ELO
1394.9
1394.9
Current Opponent ELO
1384.7
-10.25
Current ELO Difference
10.25
0.49
Expected score
0.51
65
History Matches
33
-0.09
Residual Mean
-0.16
43.14
Overperformance
40.31
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.70
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.90
Goals against per game
2.30
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.15
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.38
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
33
0.85
PPG
0.67
21.5%
Win rate
15.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
21.2%
58.5%
Loss rate
63.6%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
16
1.32
PPG
0.75
38.7%
Win rate
18.8%
16.1%
Draw rate
18.8%
45.2%
Loss rate
62.5%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.83
31
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.05
Goals for per game
0.88
63.1%
Scoring rate
54.5%
53.8%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.29
Goals for per game
0.94
64.5%
Scoring rate
56.3%
48.4%
BTTS rate
37.5%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
65
History Matches
33
1.05
Goals Mean
0.88
1.07
Goals Std
0.98
63.1%
Scored 1+ rate
54.5%
27.7%
Scored 2+ rate
27.3%
9.2%
Scored 3+ rate
3.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.97
Goals against per game
2.18
86.2%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.65
Goals against per game
2.38
80.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
33
1.97
Conceded Mean
2.18
1.30
Conceded Std
1.83
63.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.6%
30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.4%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
2.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
36.9%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
36.9%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
33
0.88
Result entropy
0.82
1.90
Goal Difference Std
2.19
12.03
Stability score
17.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
33
12
Lead Matches
7
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.62
38
Trailing Matches
15
23.7%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.76
25
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.56
Portability PPG Range
0.73
70.76
Portability Score
57.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-10.25
PPG0.18
GF0.17
GA-0.21
PPG-0.33
PPG0.57
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate8.5%
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.53
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate2.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.63
History Matches32
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-5.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate26.2%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches23
Non-loss rate10.4%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score13.07
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO-10.25
Current Opponent ELO10.25
Current ELO Difference-20.50
Expected score-0.03
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance2.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Primorje

W
Slovan Ljubljana0–1Primorje1 Nov · away
Pick: Slovan Ljubljana 52% · missed
W
Primorje1–0Rudar27 Oct · home
Pick: Rudar 41% · missed
L
Bistrica1–0Primorje17 Oct · away
Pick: Bistrica 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Jesenice

D
Rudar2–2Jesenice31 Oct · away
Pick: Rudar 57% · missed
L
Jesenice1–3Bistrica28 Oct · home
Pick: Jesenice 41% · missed
L
Dravinja2–1Jesenice16 Oct · away
Pick: Dravinja 46% · hit
L
Triglav4–0Jesenice4 Oct · away
Pick: Triglav 73% · hit
W
Jesenice3–1Beltinci29 Aug · home
Pick: Beltinci 54% · missed

About this match

Primorje and Jesenice meet in 2. SNL on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Primorje win 50.2%, draw 18.8%, Jesenice win 31.1%. The pick is Primorje win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.0%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.