Triglav vs Bilje
Match result probability Model pick: Triglav win
Triglav winPick
61.7%
Draw
21.6%
Bilje win
16.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.8%
No49.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%
How much we know
Triglav history53 matches
Bilje history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Triglav
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 16:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why Triglav are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Triglav are rated 178 Elo points higher
Elo 1,637 against 1,460. On rating alone Triglav would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.
-
Triglav score far more
2.57 goals a game over 53 matches for Triglav, against 1.09 over 47 for Bilje.
-
Triglav concede fewer
Triglav concede 1.00 a game, Bilje 1.72.
-
Triglav games more often go over 2.5 goals
60% of Triglav matches, against 51% for Bilje. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1637.4
ELO
1459.8
53
ELO · Matches
47
1637.4
Current Team ELO
1459.8
1459.8
Current Opponent ELO
1637.4
177.7
Current ELO Difference
-177.7
0.74
Expected score
0.26
53
History Matches
47
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.04
59.28
Overperformance
47.18
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
1.60
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
47
2.15
PPG
1.13
67.9%
Win rate
29.8%
11.3%
Draw rate
23.4%
20.8%
Loss rate
46.8%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.8%
60.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
47.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.8%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
23
2.11
PPG
0.87
66.7%
Win rate
21.7%
11.1%
Draw rate
21.7%
22.2%
Loss rate
56.5%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
2.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.47
27
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.57
Goals for per game
1.09
83.0%
Scoring rate
55.3%
39.6%
BTTS rate
46.8%
3.15
Goals for per game
1.22
85.2%
Scoring rate
60.9%
44.4%
BTTS rate
56.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
47
2.57
Goals Mean
1.09
2.09
Goals Std
1.22
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
55.3%
64.2%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
45.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
3.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.72
54.7%
Conceding rate
80.9%
1.11
Goals against per game
2.43
59.3%
Conceding rate
95.7%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
47
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.72
1.18
Conceded Std
1.86
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.3%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.3%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
2.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
45.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.7%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
4.3%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
45.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.7%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
4.3%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
45.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
47
0.76
Result entropy
0.96
2.51
Goal Difference Std
2.07
23.93
Stability score
3.88
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
52
Eligible Matches
47
27
Lead Matches
9
96.3%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.98
Lead Points Retention
0.85
9
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
1.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
90.94
Rest days
83.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
25
2.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.68
23
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.74
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
3
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.37
Portability PPG Range
1.07
76.82
Portability Score
51.85
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO177.7
PPG1.02
GF1.48
GA-0.72
PPG-0.50
PPG1.24
PPG-0.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate26.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate36.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches6
Goals Mean1.48
Goals Std0.87
Scored 1+ rate27.7%
Scored 2+ rate30.1%
Scored 3+ rate32.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.93
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.72
Conceded Std-0.68
Clean-sheet rate26.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.20
Goal Difference Std0.44
Stability score20.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate18.5%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate12.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.31
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score24.97
Rest days7.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.64
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO177.7
Current Opponent ELO-177.7
Current ELO Difference355.4
Expected score0.47
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance12.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Triglav
W
Ilirija1–4Triglav6 Nov · away
Pick: Ilirija 44% · missed L
Triglav2–4Krka2 Nov · home
Pick: Triglav 67% · missed W
Beltinci3–4Triglav28 Oct · away
Pick: Beltinci 51% · missed W
Triglav1–0Dekani16 Oct · home
Pick: Triglav 58% · hit W
Triglav4–0Jesenice4 Oct · home
Pick: Triglav 73% · hit Bilje
W
Bilje3–2Tabor Sežana31 Oct · home
Pick: Tabor Sežana 53% · missed L
Ilirija3–0Bilje27 Oct · away
Pick: Ilirija 63% · hit L
Bistrica4–3Bilje23 Oct · away
Pick: Bistrica 59% · hit W
Bilje2–0Krka17 Oct · home
Pick: Bilje 46% · hit W
Bilje2–0Dekani6 Oct · home
Pick: Bilje 39% · hit About this match
Triglav and Bilje meet in 2. SNL on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stanko Mlakar Stadium, Kranj. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Triglav win 61.7%, draw 21.6%, Bilje win 16.6%. The pick is Triglav win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.1%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.