ScoreProb
Premiership Scotland Round 13 2026

Dundee Utd vs Motherwell

Dundee Utd Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Motherwell Away · Elo 1,596
Tannadice Park, Dundee Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Motherwell win
Dundee Utd win
30.2%
Draw
23.4%
Motherwell winPick
46.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Dundee Utd history71 matches
Motherwell history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Motherwell are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Motherwell are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,489. On rating alone Motherwell would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Motherwell score more

    1.21 goals a game over 71 matches for Dundee Utd, against 1.40 over 72 for Motherwell.

  • Motherwell concede fewer

    Dundee Utd concede 1.61 a game, Motherwell 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Dundee Utd matches, against 47% for Motherwell. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.7
ELO
1596.2
71
ELO · Matches
72
1488.7
Current Team ELO
1596.2
1596.2
Current Opponent ELO
1488.7
-107.5
Current ELO Difference
107.5
0.35
Expected score
0.65
71
History Matches
72
0.00
Residual Mean
0.06
49.77
Overperformance
55.01
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
2.80
Goals against per game
0.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
72
1.21
PPG
1.56
31.0%
Win rate
41.7%
28.2%
Draw rate
30.6%
40.8%
Loss rate
27.8%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.4%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
36.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.4%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
37
1.49
PPG
1.30
40.5%
Win rate
32.4%
27.0%
Draw rate
32.4%
32.4%
Loss rate
35.1%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
37
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.40
69.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
49.3%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.16
67.6%
Scoring rate
64.9%
43.2%
BTTS rate
48.6%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
72
1.21
Goals Mean
1.40
1.03
Goals Std
1.11
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
39.4%
Scored 2+ rate
45.8%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.15
74.6%
Conceding rate
58.3%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.32
64.9%
Conceding rate
70.3%
2.33
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
72
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.29
Conceded Std
1.25
50.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.9%
25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
72
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.75
1.18
Stability score
1.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
72
19
Lead Matches
23
57.9%
Lead Win Rate
87.0%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.90
29
Trailing Matches
20
20.7%
Non-loss rate
35.0%
6.9%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.93
Rest days
83.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
21
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
0.33
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
9
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.21
45.37
Portability Score
52.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-107.5
PPG-0.34
GF-0.19
GA0.45
PPG-1.67
PPG0.19
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate6.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.45
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-0.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.45
Portability Score-7.06
Rest days-6.16
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.29
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO-107.5
Current Opponent ELO107.5
Current ELO Difference-215.1
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dundee Utd

D
Celtic2–2Dundee Utd28 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic 68% · missed
W
Dundee Utd3–2Aberdeen24 Oct · home
Pick: Aberdeen 46% · missed
D
ST Johnstone1–1Dundee Utd17 Oct · away
Pick: ST Johnstone 68% · missed
W
Kilmarnock0–4Dundee Utd29 Aug · away
Pick: Kilmarnock 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Motherwell

W
Motherwell1–0ST Mirren31 Oct · home
Pick: Motherwell 41% · hit
D
ST Johnstone2–2Motherwell28 Oct · away
Pick: ST Johnstone 41% · missed
L
Motherwell0–2Heart Of Midlothian25 Oct · home
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian 45% · hit
L
Kilmarnock3–2Motherwell17 Oct · away
Pick: Motherwell 43% · missed
D
ST Mirren3–3Motherwell30 Aug · away
Pick: ST Mirren 51% · missed

About this match

Dundee Utd and Motherwell meet in Premiership on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Tannadice Park, Dundee. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dundee Utd win 30.2%, draw 23.4%, Motherwell win 46.4%. The pick is Motherwell win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.