ScoreProb
Premier League Hong Kong SAR China Round 8 2026

Eastern District vs Wofoo Tai Po

Eastern District Home · Elo 1,442
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wofoo Tai Po Away · Elo 1,604
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wofoo Tai Po win
Eastern District win
32.4%
Draw
18.3%
Wofoo Tai Po winPick
49.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

How much we know

Eastern District history36 matches
Wofoo Tai Po history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Wofoo Tai Po are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wofoo Tai Po are rated 163 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,442. On rating alone Wofoo Tai Po would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Wofoo Tai Po score far more

    1.28 goals a game over 36 matches for Eastern District, against 2.15 over 54 for Wofoo Tai Po.

  • Eastern District concede fewer

    Eastern District concede 1.22 a game, Wofoo Tai Po 1.50.

  • Wofoo Tai Po games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Eastern District matches, against 69% for Wofoo Tai Po. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eastern District
Wofoo Tai Po@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1441.6
ELO
1604.4
36
ELO · Matches
54
1441.6
Current Team ELO
1604.4
1604.4
Current Opponent ELO
1441.6
-162.8
Current ELO Difference
162.8
0.28
Expected score
0.72
36
History Matches
54
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.09
43.81
Overperformance
56.66
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
2.70
0.90
Goals for per game
2.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
90.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
54
1.08
PPG
1.85
27.8%
Win rate
53.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
24.1%
47.2%
Loss rate
22.2%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
68.5%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
28
1.40
PPG
1.71
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
28.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
78.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
15
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
2.15
61.1%
Scoring rate
90.7%
47.2%
BTTS rate
70.4%
1.60
Goals for per game
2.25
66.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
46.7%
BTTS rate
67.9%
—
Goals for per game
0.00
—
Scoring rate
0.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
36
History Matches
54
1.28
Goals Mean
2.15
1.46
Goals Std
1.42
61.1%
Scored 1+ rate
90.7%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
63.0%
19.4%
Scored 3+ rate
40.7%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
2.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.50
77.8%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.68
73.3%
Conceding rate
82.1%
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
36
History Matches
54
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.50
0.89
Conceded Std
1.10
36.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
54
0.96
Result entropy
0.92
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.72
3.82
Stability score
7.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
36
Eligible Matches
54
9
Lead Matches
27
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
70.4%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.77
13
Trailing Matches
13
7.7%
Non-loss rate
53.8%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
30.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
162.2
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
11
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
0.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
5
Competition Season Count
9
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.83
Portability PPG Range
1.17
59.13
Portability Score
55.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-162.8
PPG-0.77
GF-0.87
GA-0.28
PPG-0.31
PPG-1.80
PPG-2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate29.6%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate19.0%
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-0.87
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.30
Scored 2+ rate-0.32
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches-18
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-4.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.61
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.46
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score3.68
Rest days85.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.04
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Current Team ELO-162.8
Current Opponent ELO162.8
Current ELO Difference-325.6
Expected score-0.44
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-12.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.52

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eastern District

W
Eastern District2–1Shatin31 Oct · home
Pick: Eastern District 59% · hit
D
Eastern District2–2Eastern17 Oct · home
Pick: Eastern 41% · missed
W
Kowloon City1–2Eastern District4 Oct · away
Pick: Kowloon City 47% · missed
W
BC Rangers1–3Eastern District30 Aug · away
Pick: Eastern District 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wofoo Tai Po

L
Wofoo Tai Po0–3BG Pathum United29 Oct · home
Pick: BG Pathum United 49% · hit
W
Wofoo Tai Po4–2Kitchee24 Oct · home
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 59% · hit
W
Wofoo Tai Po4–2Southern District19 Oct · home
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 50% · hit
L
Wofoo Tai Po0–1Home United15 Oct · home
Pick: Home United 45% · hit
W
BC Rangers1–3Wofoo Tai Po4 Oct · away
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 59% · hit

About this match

Eastern District and Wofoo Tai Po meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Eastern District win 32.4%, draw 18.3%, Wofoo Tai Po win 49.4%. The pick is Wofoo Tai Po win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.4%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.