ScoreProb
Premier League Hong Kong SAR China Round 8 2026

Hong Kong FC vs Eastern

Hong Kong FC Home · Elo 1,325
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eastern Away · Elo 1,496
Hong Kong Football Club Stadium, Hongkong Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hong Kong FC win
Hong Kong FC winPick
41.5%
Draw
17.5%
Eastern win
41.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.7%
Under 2.530.3%

How much we know

Hong Kong FC history41 matches
Eastern history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hong Kong FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Eastern are rated 170 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,496 against 1,325. On rating alone Eastern would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Eastern score far more

    0.85 goals a game over 41 matches for Hong Kong FC, against 1.67 over 52 for Eastern.

  • Eastern concede fewer

    Hong Kong FC concede 2.78 a game, Eastern 1.87.

  • Hong Kong FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Hong Kong FC matches, against 65% for Eastern. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hong Kong FC
Eastern@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1325.2
ELO
1495.5
41
ELO · Matches
52
1325.2
Current Team ELO
1495.5
1495.5
Current Opponent ELO
1325.2
-170.3
Current ELO Difference
170.3
0.27
Expected score
0.73
41
History Matches
52
-0.21
Residual Mean
0.00
35.77
Overperformance
50.17
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
2.90
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
52
0.37
PPG
1.42
9.8%
Win rate
40.4%
7.3%
Draw rate
21.2%
82.9%
Loss rate
38.5%
92.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.7%
78.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
48.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
24
0.35
PPG
1.29
10.0%
Win rate
37.5%
5.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
85.0%
Loss rate
45.8%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
55.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.13
20
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.85
Goals for per game
1.67
61.0%
Scoring rate
82.7%
58.5%
BTTS rate
63.5%
0.65
Goals for per game
1.71
50.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
45.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
52
0.85
Goals Mean
1.67
0.81
Goals Std
1.34
61.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.7%
22.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.4%
2.4%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
0.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.78
Goals against per game
1.87
97.6%
Conceding rate
78.8%
2.65
Goals against per game
2.08
95.0%
Conceding rate
79.2%
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
52
2.78
Conceded Mean
1.87
1.44
Conceded Std
2.04
78.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.6%
58.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.8%
2.65
Venue Conceded Mean
2.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
2.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.3%
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
2.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.3%
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
2.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
52
0.52
Result entropy
0.97
1.66
Goal Difference Std
2.75
47.79
Stability score
3.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
52
7
Lead Matches
14
42.9%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.52
Lead Points Retention
0.83
22
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
1.22
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.02
Rest days
78.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
30
0.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
8
Competition Season Count
9
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.88
0.42
Portability PPG Range
2.33
70.59
Portability Score
36.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-170.3
PPG-1.06
GF-0.82
GA0.92
PPG0.00
PPG-0.94
PPG0.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate21.7%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.82
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Goals Mean-1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.76
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.92
Conceded Std-0.60
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate43.4%
Conceded 3+ rate29.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.44
Goal Difference Std-1.09
Stability score44.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.01
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.36
Lead Points Retention-0.31
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.42
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.67
Portability PPG Range-1.92
Portability Score34.40
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.11
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Current Team ELO-170.3
Current Opponent ELO170.3
Current ELO Difference-340.7
Expected score-0.45
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.21
Overperformance-14.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hong Kong FC

D
Shatin2–2Hong Kong FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Shatin 71% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Eastern

W
Eastern5–3Southern District24 Oct · home
Pick: Eastern 55% · hit
D
Eastern District2–2Eastern17 Oct · away
Pick: Eastern 41% · missed
L
Wofoo Tai Po4–1Eastern30 Aug · away
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hong Kong FC and Eastern meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. The match is played at Hong Kong Football Club Stadium, Hongkong. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Hong Kong FC win 41.5%, draw 17.5%, Eastern win 41.0%. The pick is Hong Kong FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.7%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.