ScoreProb
Premier League Hong Kong SAR China Round 8 2026

North District vs Kowloon City

North District Home · Elo 1,520
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kowloon City Away · Elo 1,440
North District Sports Ground, Hongkong Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: North District win
North District winPick
62.3%
Draw
16.5%
Kowloon City win
21.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.9%
Under 2.527.1%

How much we know

North District history41 matches
Kowloon City history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why North District are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • North District are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,440. On rating alone North District would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • North District score more

    1.85 goals a game over 41 matches for North District, against 1.29 over 41 for Kowloon City.

  • North District concede fewer

    North District concede 1.90 a game, Kowloon City 2.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    83% of North District matches, against 76% for Kowloon City. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
North District
Kowloon City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.3
ELO
1439.6
41
ELO · Matches
41
1520.3
Current Team ELO
1439.6
1439.6
Current Opponent ELO
1520.3
80.77
Current ELO Difference
-80.77
0.61
Expected score
0.39
41
History Matches
41
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
51.23
Overperformance
45.48
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
2.10
Goals for per game
1.30
2.10
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
41
1.44
PPG
0.95
39.0%
Win rate
26.8%
26.8%
Draw rate
14.6%
34.1%
Loss rate
58.5%
97.6%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
82.9%
Over 2.5 rate
75.6%
56.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.8%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
20
1.37
PPG
0.85
36.8%
Win rate
25.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
10.0%
36.8%
Loss rate
65.0%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
78.9%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
19
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.29
90.2%
Scoring rate
70.7%
80.5%
BTTS rate
65.9%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.05
84.2%
Scoring rate
65.0%
78.9%
BTTS rate
55.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
41
History Matches
41
1.85
Goals Mean
1.29
0.98
Goals Std
1.23
90.2%
Scored 1+ rate
70.7%
68.3%
Scored 2+ rate
36.6%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.90
Goals against per game
2.29
90.2%
Conceding rate
90.2%
1.79
Goals against per game
2.15
94.7%
Conceding rate
85.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
41
1.90
Conceded Mean
2.29
1.19
Conceded Std
1.42
56.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
68.3%
34.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
41.5%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
41
0.99
Result entropy
0.86
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.96
1.05
Stability score
13.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
41
9
Lead Matches
12
55.6%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.56
18
Trailing Matches
19
55.6%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
1.02
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.78
26
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.24
Portability PPG Range
0.69
48.95
Portability Score
59.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO80.77
PPG0.49
GF0.56
GA-0.39
PPG3.00
PPG0.52
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate19.5%
Scored 2+ rate31.7%
Scored 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.95
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches0
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-12.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.85
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate5.6%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate45.0%
Trailing Win Rate28.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean5.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.55
Portability Score-10.25
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.87
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO80.77
Current Opponent ELO-80.77
Current ELO Difference161.5
Expected score0.23
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance5.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

North District

W
BC Rangers0–1North District18 Oct · away
Pick: North District 56% · hit
D
North District0–0Kitchee29 Aug · home
Pick: Kitchee 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kowloon City

D
Kowloon City2–2BC Rangers30 Oct · home
Pick: Kowloon City 43% · missed
L
Kowloon City1–2Eastern District4 Oct · home
Pick: Kowloon City 47% · missed
L
Southern District2–1Kowloon City29 Aug · away
Pick: Southern District 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

North District and Kowloon City meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:00 UTC. The match is played at North District Sports Ground, Hongkong. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: North District win 62.3%, draw 16.5%, Kowloon City win 21.2%. The pick is North District win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.9%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.