ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Eibar II vs Atlético Astorga

Eibar II Home · Elo 1,531
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Astorga Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Astorga win
Eibar II win
32.8%
Draw
28.1%
Atlético Astorga winPick
39.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%

How much we know

Eibar II history51 matches
Atlético Astorga history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Atlético Astorga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,531 against 1,531. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Atlético Astorga score more

    1.18 goals a game over 51 matches for Eibar II, against 1.39 over 56 for Atlético Astorga.

  • Defences are close

    Eibar II concede 1.04 a game, Atlético Astorga 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Eibar II matches, against 43% for Atlético Astorga. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eibar II
Atlético Astorga
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.7
ELO
1531.4
51
ELO · Matches
56
1530.7
Current Team ELO
1531.4
1531.4
Current Opponent ELO
1530.7
-0.68
Current ELO Difference
0.68
0.50
Expected score
0.50
51
History Matches
56
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.32
Overperformance
52.38
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
56
1.47
PPG
1.59
41.2%
Win rate
42.9%
23.5%
Draw rate
30.4%
35.3%
Loss rate
26.8%
62.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
37.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
1.65
PPG
1.42
50.0%
Win rate
38.5%
15.4%
Draw rate
26.9%
34.6%
Loss rate
34.6%
57.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.7%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.39
66.7%
Scoring rate
73.2%
43.1%
BTTS rate
44.6%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.12
69.2%
Scoring rate
53.8%
46.2%
BTTS rate
38.5%
51
History Matches
56
1.18
Goals Mean
1.39
1.17
Goals Std
1.22
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.04
Goals against per game
1.05
66.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.00
65.4%
Conceding rate
69.2%
51
History Matches
56
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.05
0.88
Conceded Std
1.11
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.8%
3.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.69
2.30
Stability score
1.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
56
16
Lead Matches
17
93.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.84
11
Trailing Matches
10
18.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.2
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.23
Portability PPG Range
1.52
81.60
Portability Score
44.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-0.68
PPG-0.12
GF-0.22
GA-0.01
PPG0.23
PPG0.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate6.5%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate6.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.59
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate17.3%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.51
Portability PPG Range-1.30
Portability Score37.07
Rest days111.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-0.68
Current Opponent ELO0.68
Current ELO Difference-1.35
Expected score0.00
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eibar II

L
Deportivo Alavés II2–1Eibar II1 Nov · away
Pick: Deportivo Alavés II 41% · hit
W
Eibar II3–2Bergantiños24 Oct · home
Pick: Bergantiños 37% · missed
D
Portugalete0–0Eibar II17 Oct · away
Pick: Portugalete 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlético Astorga

L
Racing Santander II2–0Atlético Astorga1 Nov · away
Pick: Atlético Astorga 41% · missed
D
Atlético Astorga1–1Gernika24 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Astorga 58% · missed
L
Compostela4–1Atlético Astorga17 Oct · away
Pick: Compostela 41% · hit
L
Atlético Astorga0–1Palencia CF29 Aug · home
Pick: Atlético Astorga 41% · missed
W
Atlético Astorga2–1Salamanca UDS26 Aug · home
Pick: Atlético Astorga 63% · hit

About this match

Eibar II and Atlético Astorga meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Eibar II win 32.8%, draw 28.1%, Atlético Astorga win 39.0%. The pick is Atlético Astorga win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.7%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.