ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Ourense CF vs Portugalete

Ourense CF Home · Elo 1,482
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Portugalete Away · Elo 1,630
Estadio de O Couto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ourense CF win
Ourense CF winPick
38.5%
Draw
30.4%
Portugalete win
31.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Ourense CF history66 matches
Portugalete history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ourense CF are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Portugalete are rated 148 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,630 against 1,482. On rating alone Portugalete would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Portugalete score far more

    1.23 goals a game over 66 matches for Ourense CF, against 1.89 over 56 for Portugalete.

  • Portugalete concede fewer

    Ourense CF concede 1.18 a game, Portugalete 0.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Ourense CF matches, against 50% for Portugalete. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ourense CF
Portugalete
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.4
ELO
1630.3
66
ELO · Matches
56
1482.4
Current Team ELO
1630.3
1630.3
Current Opponent ELO
1482.4
-147.9
Current ELO Difference
147.9
0.30
Expected score
0.70
66
History Matches
56
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.12
48.94
Overperformance
58.84
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
56
1.35
PPG
2.07
34.8%
Win rate
60.7%
30.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
14.3%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
47.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
26
1.82
PPG
1.92
54.5%
Win rate
50.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
42.3%
27.3%
Loss rate
7.7%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
33
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.23
Goals for per game
1.89
69.7%
Scoring rate
87.5%
48.5%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.69
81.8%
Scoring rate
92.3%
51.5%
BTTS rate
61.5%
66
History Matches
56
1.23
Goals Mean
1.89
1.13
Goals Std
1.46
69.7%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
10.6%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
0.91
65.2%
Conceding rate
64.3%
1.12
Goals against per game
0.96
60.6%
Conceding rate
65.4%
66
History Matches
56
1.18
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.10
Conceded Std
0.89
37.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.6%
12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
56
1.00
Result entropy
0.84
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.77
0.19
Stability score
15.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
56
17
Lead Matches
27
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.85
15
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.96
Rest days
86.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
42
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.26
21
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.47
Portability PPG Range
1.02
48.56
Portability Score
54.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-147.9
PPG-0.72
GF-0.67
GA0.27
PPG-0.10
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate17.8%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate10.5%
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.67
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches10
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-15.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate8.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.45
Portability Score-5.47
Rest days-7.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Current Team ELO-147.9
Current Opponent ELO147.9
Current ELO Difference-295.9
Expected score-0.40
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ourense CF

D
Bergantiños1–1Ourense CF1 Nov · away
Pick: Ourense CF 42% · missed
W
Ourense CF3–0Gimnástica Torrelavega25 Oct · home
Pick: Ourense CF 44% · hit
L
Ourense CF0–1Coruxo17 Oct · home
Pick: Ourense CF 52% · missed
D
Ourense CF0–0Arosa4 Oct · home
Pick: Ourense CF 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Portugalete

D
Portugalete3–3Arosa1 Nov · home
Pick: Portugalete 54% · missed
D
Basconia2–2Portugalete25 Oct · away
Pick: Portugalete 45% · missed
D
Portugalete0–0Eibar II17 Oct · home
Pick: Portugalete 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ourense CF and Portugalete meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio de O Couto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ourense CF win 38.5%, draw 30.4%, Portugalete win 31.1%. The pick is Ourense CF win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.