ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Real Oviedo II vs Coruxo

Real Oviedo II Home · Elo 1,563
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Coruxo Away · Elo 1,527
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Oviedo II win
Real Oviedo II winPick
45.8%
Draw
25.1%
Coruxo win
29.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.6%
Under 2.551.4%

How much we know

Real Oviedo II history54 matches
Coruxo history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Real Oviedo II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Oviedo II are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,563 against 1,527. On rating alone Real Oviedo II would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Real Oviedo II score more

    1.69 goals a game over 54 matches for Real Oviedo II, against 1.23 over 52 for Coruxo.

  • Real Oviedo II concede fewer

    Real Oviedo II concede 0.83 a game, Coruxo 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Real Oviedo II matches, against 40% for Coruxo. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Oviedo II
Coruxo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.0
ELO
1526.9
54
ELO · Matches
52
1563.0
Current Team ELO
1526.9
1526.9
Current Opponent ELO
1563.0
36.17
Current ELO Difference
-36.17
0.55
Expected score
0.45
54
History Matches
52
0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
54.21
Overperformance
51.87
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.50
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
52
1.91
PPG
1.46
55.6%
Win rate
40.4%
24.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.4%
Loss rate
34.6%
68.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.2%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.4%
20.4%
Over 3.5 rate
17.3%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
1.89
PPG
1.23
57.1%
Win rate
30.8%
17.9%
Draw rate
30.8%
25.0%
Loss rate
38.5%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
7.7%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.69
Goals for per game
1.23
75.9%
Scoring rate
73.1%
38.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.04
75.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
39.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
52
1.69
Goals Mean
1.23
1.49
Goals Std
1.12
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.1%
48.1%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
24.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
1.08
55.6%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.15
57.1%
Conceding rate
73.1%
54
History Matches
52
0.83
Conceded Mean
1.08
0.90
Conceded Std
0.83
22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
52
0.90
Result entropy
0.98
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.52
9.57
Stability score
1.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
52
21
Lead Matches
18
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.80
13
Trailing Matches
11
53.8%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
161.0
Rest days
80.69
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
24
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.77
Portability PPG Std
0.05
1.88
Portability PPG Range
0.10
39.51
Portability Score
90.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO36.17
PPG0.45
GF0.45
GA-0.24
PPG0.66
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate2.8%
Scored 2+ rate17.4%
Scored 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score7.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate13.5%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate26.6%
Trailing Win Rate15.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.72
Portability PPG Range1.77
Portability Score-51.33
Rest days80.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.53
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO36.17
Current Opponent ELO-36.17
Current ELO Difference72.33
Expected score0.10
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Oviedo II

W
Real Oviedo II2–1Llanera31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Oviedo II 47% · hit
D
Marino de Luanco0–0Real Oviedo II25 Oct · away
Pick: Marino de Luanco 41% · missed
L
Bergantiños3–0Real Oviedo II18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Oviedo II 39% · missed
W
Compostela1–2Real Oviedo II4 Oct · away
Pick: Compostela 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Coruxo

L
Coruxo0–2Sestao River1 Nov · home
Pick: Coruxo 39% · missed
L
Amorebieta2–1Coruxo24 Oct · away
Pick: Amorebieta 46% · hit
W
Ourense CF0–1Coruxo17 Oct · away
Pick: Ourense CF 52% · missed
L
Bergantiños3–1Coruxo4 Oct · away
Pick: Bergantiños 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Real Oviedo II and Coruxo meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Real Oviedo II win 45.8%, draw 25.1%, Coruxo win 29.2%. The pick is Real Oviedo II win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.6%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.