ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Marino de Luanco vs Racing Santander II

Marino de Luanco Home · Elo 1,486
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Racing Santander II Away · Elo 1,563
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Marino de Luanco win
Marino de Luanco winPick
44.1%
Draw
26.1%
Racing Santander II win
29.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Marino de Luanco history57 matches
Racing Santander II history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Marino de Luanco are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Racing Santander II are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,563 against 1,486. On rating alone Racing Santander II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Racing Santander II score far more

    0.96 goals a game over 57 matches for Marino de Luanco, against 1.76 over 51 for Racing Santander II.

  • Marino de Luanco concede fewer

    Marino de Luanco concede 0.96 a game, Racing Santander II 1.39.

  • Racing Santander II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Marino de Luanco matches, against 59% for Racing Santander II. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Marino de Luanco
Racing Santander II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.4
ELO
1563.5
57
ELO · Matches
51
1486.4
Current Team ELO
1563.5
1563.5
Current Opponent ELO
1486.4
-77.07
Current ELO Difference
77.07
0.39
Expected score
0.61
57
History Matches
51
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
49.56
Overperformance
55.14
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
0.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.30
1.00
Goals for per game
2.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
51
1.21
PPG
1.53
29.8%
Win rate
39.2%
31.6%
Draw rate
35.3%
38.6%
Loss rate
25.5%
54.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
35.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
12.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
23
1.37
PPG
1.22
33.3%
Win rate
26.1%
36.7%
Draw rate
43.5%
30.0%
Loss rate
30.4%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
30
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.96
Goals for per game
1.76
61.4%
Scoring rate
84.3%
38.6%
BTTS rate
68.6%
1.03
Goals for per game
1.74
66.7%
Scoring rate
82.6%
43.3%
BTTS rate
78.3%
57
History Matches
51
0.96
Goals Mean
1.76
1.01
Goals Std
1.45
61.4%
Scored 1+ rate
84.3%
24.6%
Scored 2+ rate
45.1%
7.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
1.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.96
Goals against per game
1.39
59.6%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.87
56.7%
Conceding rate
91.3%
57
History Matches
51
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.03
Conceded Std
1.12
24.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.2%
10.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
38.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
38.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
51
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.60
0.58
Stability score
1.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
51
12
Lead Matches
14
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.81
15
Trailing Matches
9
13.3%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.94
Rest days
85.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
20
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.23
70.55
Portability Score
81.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-77.07
PPG-0.32
GF-0.80
GA-0.43
PPG0.15
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Failed-to-score rate22.9%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate34.6%
Failed-to-score rate15.9%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.80
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches6
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-0.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.53
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-10.68
Rest days6.67
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-77.07
Current Opponent ELO77.07
Current ELO Difference-154.1
Expected score-0.22
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Marino de Luanco

D
Gernika0–0Marino de Luanco31 Oct · away
Pick: Marino de Luanco 36% · missed
D
Marino de Luanco0–0Real Oviedo II25 Oct · home
Pick: Marino de Luanco 41% · missed
L
Marino de Luanco0–1Sestao River18 Oct · home
Pick: Marino de Luanco 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Racing Santander II

W
Racing Santander II2–0Atlético Astorga1 Nov · home
Pick: Atlético Astorga 41% · missed
D
Deportivo Alavés II3–3Racing Santander II24 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Alavés II 49% · missed
W
Racing Santander II3–1Basconia17 Oct · home
Pick: Basconia 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Marino de Luanco and Racing Santander II meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Marino de Luanco win 44.1%, draw 26.1%, Racing Santander II win 29.8%. The pick is Marino de Luanco win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.