ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 13 2026

Eiche Horn vs Geestemünde

Eiche Horn Home · Elo 1,590
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Geestemünde Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Eiche Horn win
Eiche Horn winPick
67.2%
Draw
16.2%
Geestemünde win
16.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.1%
Under 2.521.9%

How much we know

Eiche Horn history44 matches
Geestemünde history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Eiche Horn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Eiche Horn are rated 110 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,480. On rating alone Eiche Horn would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.20 goals a game over 44 matches for Eiche Horn, against 2.36 over 47 for Geestemünde.

  • Eiche Horn concede fewer

    Eiche Horn concede 1.30 a game, Geestemünde 2.38.

  • Geestemünde games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Eiche Horn matches, against 85% for Geestemünde. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eiche Horn
Geestemünde
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.4
ELO
1480.2
44
ELO · Matches
47
1590.4
Current Team ELO
1480.2
1480.2
Current Opponent ELO
1590.4
110.2
Current ELO Difference
-110.2
0.65
Expected score
0.35
44
History Matches
47
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.03
56.88
Overperformance
47.96
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.60
Goals against per game
3.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.30
Goals for per game
2.30
1.60
Goals against per game
3.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
2.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.40
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
47
2.00
PPG
1.43
63.6%
Win rate
40.4%
9.1%
Draw rate
21.3%
27.3%
Loss rate
38.3%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.4%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
85.1%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
68.1%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
25
2.27
PPG
1.12
72.7%
Win rate
28.0%
9.1%
Draw rate
28.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
44.0%
95.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
84.0%
59.1%
Over 3.5 rate
64.0%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
22
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.20
Goals for per game
2.36
86.4%
Scoring rate
87.2%
61.4%
BTTS rate
74.5%
2.86
Goals for per game
1.64
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
81.8%
BTTS rate
76.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
47
2.20
Goals Mean
2.36
1.52
Goals Std
1.91
86.4%
Scored 1+ rate
87.2%
65.9%
Scored 2+ rate
66.0%
38.6%
Scored 3+ rate
36.2%
2.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
2.38
70.5%
Conceding rate
83.0%
1.32
Goals against per game
2.44
81.8%
Conceding rate
92.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
4.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
47
1.30
Conceded Mean
2.38
1.24
Conceded Std
1.87
29.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.7%
22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
44.7%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
2.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
47
0.78
Result entropy
0.97
2.11
Goal Difference Std
2.91
21.72
Stability score
3.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
47
19
Lead Matches
17
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.73
11
Trailing Matches
17
18.2%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
1.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.38
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.83
Rest days
77.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.33
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.77
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.88
58.03
Portability Score
39.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO110.2
PPG0.57
GF-0.16
GA-1.09
PPG1.00
PPG1.15
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.01
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-1.09
Conceded Std-0.64
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.22
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.80
Stability score18.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate35.3%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.74
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.00
Portability Score18.64
Rest days1.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.94
Current Team ELO110.2
Current Opponent ELO-110.2
Current ELO Difference220.4
Expected score0.31
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance8.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eiche Horn

W
Blumenthaler SV2–3Eiche Horn31 Oct · away
Pick: Blumenthaler SV 71% · missed
L
Eiche Horn2–3Vatan Sport25 Oct · home
Pick: Eiche Horn 45% · missed
L
OSC Bremerhaven4–0Eiche Horn16 Oct · away
Pick: OSC Bremerhaven 62% · hit
D
Eiche Horn1–1Oberneuland30 Aug · home
Pick: Eiche Horn 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Geestemünde

L
Geestemünde0–4Hemelingen1 Nov · home
Pick: Hemelingen 76% · hit
W
Woltmershausen0–3Geestemünde24 Oct · away
Pick: Geestemünde 45% · hit
W
Geestemünde4–1Union Bremen18 Oct · home
Pick: Union Bremen 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Eiche Horn and Geestemünde meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Eiche Horn win 67.2%, draw 16.2%, Geestemünde win 16.6%. The pick is Eiche Horn win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.1%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.