ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 13 2026

Schwachhausen vs Brinkumer SV

Schwachhausen Home · Elo 1,492
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brinkumer SV Away · Elo 1,551
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brinkumer SV win
Schwachhausen win
18.6%
Draw
17.8%
Brinkumer SV winPick
63.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%
No36.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.5%
Under 2.520.5%

How much we know

Schwachhausen history3 matches
Brinkumer SV history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Brinkumer SV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brinkumer SV are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,492. On rating alone Brinkumer SV would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Brinkumer SV score far more

    1.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Schwachhausen, against 2.72 over 47 for Brinkumer SV.

  • Brinkumer SV concede fewer

    Schwachhausen concede 3.00 a game, Brinkumer SV 1.96.

  • Schwachhausen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Schwachhausen matches, against 87% for Brinkumer SV. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Schwachhausen
Brinkumer SV
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.2
ELO
1550.6
3
ELO · Matches
47
1492.2
Current Team ELO
1550.6
1550.6
Current Opponent ELO
1492.2
-58.33
Current ELO Difference
58.33
0.42
Expected score
0.58
3
History Matches
47
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.06
48.81
Overperformance
54.17
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.67
Goals for per game
3.40
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
33.3%
Win rate
60.0%
3
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.67
Goals for per game
2.90
3.00
Goals against per game
2.30
33.3%
Win rate
40.0%
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.74
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.00
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
47
1.00
PPG
1.64
33.3%
Win rate
48.9%
0.0%
Draw rate
17.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
34.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
87.2%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
68.1%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
22
1.50
PPG
1.45
50.0%
Win rate
40.9%
0.0%
Draw rate
22.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
36.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
90.9%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
77.3%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.27
2
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
2.72
66.7%
Scoring rate
80.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
59.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.77
50.0%
Scoring rate
81.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
72.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
4.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
3
History Matches
47
1.67
Goals Mean
2.72
1.25
Goals Std
2.18
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.9%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
68.1%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
53.2%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.00
Goals against per game
1.96
100.0%
Conceding rate
74.5%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.09
100.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
3
History Matches
47
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.96
0.82
Conceded Std
1.82
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.3%
66.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.9%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
47
0.58
Result entropy
0.93
2.05
Goal Difference Std
3.20
42.06
Stability score
7.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
45
1
Lead Matches
16
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.88
2
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
1.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.04
1.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.67
1.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.16
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
78.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
1
Long Rest History Matches
22
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
5.72
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.25
—
Portability PPG Range
0.62
—
Portability Score
66.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-58.33
PPG-0.64
GF-1.06
GA1.04
PPG-1.00
PPG0.05
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate14.2%
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate31.8%
History Matches-44
Goals Mean-1.06
Goals Std-0.93
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-1.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.23
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.49
History Matches-44
Conceded Mean1.04
Conceded Std-1.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Conceded 2+ rate44.7%
Conceded 3+ rate34.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.19
History Matches-44
Result entropy-0.35
Goal Difference Std-1.15
Stability score34.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.90
Eligible Matches-42
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate18.8%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-42
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.33
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-1.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.58
Long Rest History Matches-21
Long Rest Points Per Match1.27
Current Team ELO-58.33
Current Opponent ELO58.33
Current ELO Difference-116.7
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-44
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-5.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Schwachhausen

L
OSC Bremerhaven5–0Schwachhausen30 Oct · away
Pick: OSC Bremerhaven 82% · hit
L
Schwachhausen1–3Leher TS25 Oct · home
Pick: Schwachhausen 41% · missed
D
Aumund-Vegesack3–3Schwachhausen17 Oct · away
Pick: Aumund-Vegesack 69% · missed
W
Woltmershausen0–2Schwachhausen29 Aug · away
Pick: Woltmershausen 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Brinkumer SV

L
Leher TS4–0Brinkumer SV1 Nov · away
Pick: Brinkumer SV 67% · missed
W
BTS Neustadt3–4Brinkumer SV17 Oct · away
Pick: Brinkumer SV 58% · hit
W
Aumund-Vegesack2–3Brinkumer SV29 Aug · away
Pick: Brinkumer SV 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Schwachhausen and Brinkumer SV meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Schwachhausen win 18.6%, draw 17.8%, Brinkumer SV win 63.6%. The pick is Brinkumer SV win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.5%. Both teams to score: 63.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.