ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 13 2026

Hemelingen vs Werder Bremen III

Hemelingen Home · Elo 1,641
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Werder Bremen III Away · Elo 1,464
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hemelingen win
Hemelingen winPick
82.4%
Draw
9.6%
Werder Bremen III win
8.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.2%
No36.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.585.1%
Under 2.514.9%

How much we know

Hemelingen history52 matches
Werder Bremen III history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (82.4%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Hemelingen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hemelingen are rated 177 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,641 against 1,464. On rating alone Hemelingen would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Hemelingen score far more

    3.29 goals a game over 52 matches for Hemelingen, against 1.91 over 46 for Werder Bremen III.

  • Hemelingen concede fewer

    Hemelingen concede 1.50 a game, Werder Bremen III 2.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    85% of Hemelingen matches, against 80% for Werder Bremen III. The model puts this match at 85% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hemelingen
Werder Bremen III
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1641.0
ELO
1463.7
52
ELO · Matches
46
1641.0
Current Team ELO
1463.7
1463.7
Current Opponent ELO
1641.0
177.3
Current ELO Difference
-177.3
0.74
Expected score
0.26
52
History Matches
46
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.03
59.25
Overperformance
47.69
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
3.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.60
Goals against per game
4.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.00
3.70
Goals for per game
1.90
1.60
Goals against per game
3.20
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
3.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.20
2.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.89
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.88
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
46
2.19
PPG
1.17
69.2%
Win rate
34.8%
11.5%
Draw rate
13.0%
19.2%
Loss rate
52.2%
94.2%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
84.6%
Over 2.5 rate
80.4%
69.2%
Over 3.5 rate
63.0%
3.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
22
2.36
PPG
0.77
76.0%
Win rate
22.7%
8.0%
Draw rate
9.1%
16.0%
Loss rate
68.2%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.5%
76.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
72.0%
Over 3.5 rate
59.1%
3.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
25
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
3.29
Goals for per game
1.91
92.3%
Scoring rate
73.9%
57.7%
BTTS rate
69.6%
3.12
Goals for per game
1.50
92.0%
Scoring rate
59.1%
52.0%
BTTS rate
59.1%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
46
3.29
Goals Mean
1.91
2.36
Goals Std
1.61
92.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.9%
73.1%
Scored 2+ rate
52.2%
55.8%
Scored 3+ rate
39.1%
3.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
2.39
63.5%
Conceding rate
89.1%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.68
60.0%
Conceding rate
95.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
4.67
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
46
1.50
Conceded Mean
2.39
2.00
Conceded Std
1.50
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
78.3%
17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
39.1%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
2.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.9%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
4.5%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.9%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
4.5%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
46
0.75
Result entropy
0.89
3.61
Goal Difference Std
2.27
25.29
Stability score
11.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
46
26
Lead Matches
13
96.2%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.87
10
Trailing Matches
20
30.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
1.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.22
1.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.98
Rest days
78.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
28
2.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
26
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
2
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
7
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
1.16
Portability PPG Std
0.58
2.75
Portability PPG Range
1.30
30.14
Portability Score
46.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO177.3
PPG1.02
GF1.38
GA-0.89
PPG3.00
PPG1.59
PPG1.20
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate25.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate35.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches6
Goals Mean1.38
Goals Std0.75
Scored 1+ rate18.4%
Scored 2+ rate20.9%
Scored 3+ rate16.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.97
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.89
Conceded Std0.51
Clean-sheet rate25.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.42
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.73
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std1.34
Stability score13.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.20
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate11.5%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate15.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean6.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.58
Portability PPG Range1.45
Portability Score-16.09
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.25
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.74
Current Team ELO177.3
Current Opponent ELO-177.3
Current ELO Difference354.6
Expected score0.47
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance11.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hemelingen

W
Geestemünde0–4Hemelingen1 Nov · away
Pick: Hemelingen 76% · hit
W
Hemelingen1–0Blumenthaler SV25 Oct · home
Pick: Hemelingen 43% · hit
W
Vatan Sport0–6Hemelingen17 Oct · away
Pick: Hemelingen 59% · hit
W
Hemelingen6–1Union Bremen30 Aug · home
Pick: Hemelingen 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Werder Bremen III

D
Werder Bremen III2–2Woltmershausen1 Nov · home
Pick: Werder Bremen III 50% · missed
D
Union Bremen2–2Werder Bremen III24 Oct · away
Pick: Union Bremen 68% · missed
L
Werder Bremen III3–4Oberneuland18 Oct · home
Pick: Oberneuland 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hemelingen and Werder Bremen III meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Hemelingen win 82.4%, draw 9.6%, Werder Bremen III win 8.0%. The pick is Hemelingen win. Over 2.5 goals: 85.1%. Both teams to score: 63.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.