ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nord Germany North - 17 2026

Eintracht Norderstedt vs SV Drochtersen/Assel

Eintracht Norderstedt Home · Elo 1,475
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SV Drochtersen/Assel Away · Elo 1,629
Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion, Norderstedt Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SV Drochtersen/Assel win
Eintracht Norderstedt win
34.7%
Draw
21.0%
SV Drochtersen/Assel winPick
44.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes69.3%
No30.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.6%
Under 2.525.4%

How much we know

Eintracht Norderstedt history61 matches
SV Drochtersen/Assel history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why SV Drochtersen/Assel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SV Drochtersen/Assel are rated 154 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,475. On rating alone SV Drochtersen/Assel would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • SV Drochtersen/Assel score more

    1.93 goals a game over 61 matches for Eintracht Norderstedt, against 2.37 over 60 for SV Drochtersen/Assel.

  • SV Drochtersen/Assel concede fewer

    Eintracht Norderstedt concede 1.92 a game, SV Drochtersen/Assel 1.37.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Eintracht Norderstedt matches, against 72% for SV Drochtersen/Assel. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eintracht Norderstedt
SV Drochtersen/Assel
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.0
ELO
1629.2
61
ELO · Matches
60
1475.0
Current Team ELO
1629.2
1629.2
Current Opponent ELO
1475.0
-154.2
Current ELO Difference
154.2
0.29
Expected score
0.71
61
History Matches
60
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
49.10
Overperformance
58.11
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
2.60
2.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.70
2.30
Goals for per game
2.50
2.30
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
60
1.26
PPG
1.97
32.8%
Win rate
60.0%
27.9%
Draw rate
16.7%
39.3%
Loss rate
23.3%
91.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
68.9%
Over 2.5 rate
71.7%
57.4%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
29
1.42
PPG
1.55
39.4%
Win rate
44.8%
24.2%
Draw rate
20.7%
36.4%
Loss rate
34.5%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
48.5%
Over 3.5 rate
55.2%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
33
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.93
Goals for per game
2.37
86.9%
Scoring rate
86.7%
70.5%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.94
Goals for per game
2.00
81.8%
Scoring rate
79.3%
63.6%
BTTS rate
58.6%
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
60
1.93
Goals Mean
2.37
1.68
Goals Std
1.65
86.9%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
50.8%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
43.3%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.92
Goals against per game
1.37
82.0%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.66
78.8%
Conceding rate
75.9%
2.60
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
60
1.92
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.37
Conceded Std
1.05
62.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
29.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
13.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
13.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
60
0.99
Result entropy
0.86
2.36
Goal Difference Std
2.03
0.90
Stability score
14.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
57
22
Lead Matches
23
59.1%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.68
Lead Points Retention
0.86
18
Trailing Matches
14
27.8%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
35.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
1.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.82
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.12
Portability PPG Range
1.50
51.18
Portability Score
47.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-154.2
PPG-0.70
GF-0.43
GA0.55
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.13
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate0.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.55
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate12.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.82
History Matches1
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score-13.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.40
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.36
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.65
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score3.65
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Current Team ELO-154.2
Current Opponent ELO154.2
Current ELO Difference-308.3
Expected score-0.42
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-9.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eintracht Norderstedt

L
Todesfelde4–2Eintracht Norderstedt1 Nov · away
Pick: Todesfelde 60% · hit
L
Hannover 96 II4–3Eintracht Norderstedt24 Oct · away
Pick: Hannover 96 II 63% · hit
W
Hamburger SV II0–2Eintracht Norderstedt30 Aug · away
Pick: Eintracht Norderstedt 43% · hit
L
Tus Dassendorf3–1Eintracht Norderstedt29 Aug · away
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SV Drochtersen/Assel

D
HSC Hannover1–1SV Drochtersen/Assel1 Nov · away
Pick: HSC Hannover 41% · missed
W
SV Drochtersen/Assel5–1Todesfelde24 Oct · home
Pick: SV Drochtersen/Assel 49% · hit
L
Weiche Flensburg3–0SV Drochtersen/Assel16 Oct · away
Pick: Weiche Flensburg 52% · hit
W
VfB Lübeck2–3SV Drochtersen/Assel29 Aug · away
Pick: SV Drochtersen/Assel 42% · hit
L
SV Drochtersen/Assel0–1Werder Bremen II26 Aug · home
Pick: SV Drochtersen/Assel 69% · missed

About this match

Eintracht Norderstedt and SV Drochtersen/Assel meet in Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion, Norderstedt. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Eintracht Norderstedt win 34.7%, draw 21.0%, SV Drochtersen/Assel win 44.3%. The pick is SV Drochtersen/Assel win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.6%. Both teams to score: 69.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.