ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nord Germany North - 17 2026

Phönix Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II

Phönix Lübeck Home · Elo 1,564
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hamburger SV II Away · Elo 1,468
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Phönix Lübeck win
Phönix Lübeck winPick
64.7%
Draw
16.2%
Hamburger SV II win
19.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.4%
Under 2.531.6%

How much we know

Phönix Lübeck history63 matches
Hamburger SV II history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Phönix Lübeck are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Phönix Lübeck are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,468. On rating alone Phönix Lübeck would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.75 goals a game over 63 matches for Phönix Lübeck, against 1.72 over 60 for Hamburger SV II.

  • Phönix Lübeck concede fewer

    Phönix Lübeck concede 1.32 a game, Hamburger SV II 1.90.

  • Hamburger SV II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Phönix Lübeck matches, against 63% for Hamburger SV II. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Phönix Lübeck
Hamburger SV II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.2
ELO
1467.7
63
ELO · Matches
60
1564.2
Current Team ELO
1467.7
1467.7
Current Opponent ELO
1564.2
96.45
Current ELO Difference
-96.45
0.64
Expected score
0.36
63
History Matches
60
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.22
Overperformance
48.22
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.70
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
60
1.62
PPG
1.22
44.4%
Win rate
31.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
26.7%
27.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
41.3%
Over 3.5 rate
51.7%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
2.03
PPG
1.17
62.1%
Win rate
31.0%
17.2%
Draw rate
24.1%
20.7%
Loss rate
44.8%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.75
Goals for per game
1.72
81.0%
Scoring rate
78.3%
50.8%
BTTS rate
65.0%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.31
79.3%
Scoring rate
75.9%
34.5%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
63
History Matches
60
1.75
Goals Mean
1.72
1.45
Goals Std
1.54
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.3%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
45.0%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
21.7%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.90
61.9%
Conceding rate
81.7%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.76
48.3%
Conceding rate
72.4%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.75
25.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
60
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.35
Conceded Std
1.46
41.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.0%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.0%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
51.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
51.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
60
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
2.13
Goal Difference Std
2.15
2.44
Stability score
1.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
57
23
Lead Matches
17
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.78
15
Trailing Matches
17
33.3%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
78.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
21
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.25
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.25
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.30
Portability PPG Range
1.16
81.34
Portability Score
51.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO96.45
PPG0.40
GF0.03
GA-0.58
PPG1.50
PPG0.86
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate24.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.58
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score0.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate15.7%
Trailing Win Rate7.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.75
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.86
Portability Score29.56
Rest days-1.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.63
Current Team ELO96.45
Current Opponent ELO-96.45
Current ELO Difference192.9
Expected score0.27
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Phönix Lübeck

W
Schöningen0–3Phönix Lübeck31 Oct · away
Pick: Schöningen 50% · missed
D
Phönix Lübeck2–2Atlas Delmenhorst25 Oct · home
Pick: Phönix Lübeck 53% · missed
D
Kickers Emden2–2Phönix Lübeck17 Oct · away
Pick: Phönix Lübeck 52% · missed
D
St. Pauli II2–2Phönix Lübeck30 Aug · away
Pick: Phönix Lübeck 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hamburger SV II

W
Hamburger SV II4–2Hannover 96 II1 Nov · home
Pick: Hannover 96 II 50% · missed
W
Werder Bremen II1–4Hamburger SV II28 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen II 51% · missed
L
Bremer SV4–1Hamburger SV II25 Oct · away
Pick: Bremer SV 52% · hit
L
Hamburger SV II1–2VfB Oldenburg18 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 67% · hit
L
Hamburger SV II0–2Eintracht Norderstedt30 Aug · home
Pick: Eintracht Norderstedt 43% · hit

About this match

Phönix Lübeck and Hamburger SV II meet in Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Phönix Lübeck win 64.7%, draw 16.2%, Hamburger SV II win 19.1%. The pick is Phönix Lübeck win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.4%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.