El Entag EL Harby vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
El Entag EL Harby win
26.5%
DrawPick
36.8%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla win
36.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.4%
No51.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.542.0%
Under 2.558.0%
How much we know
El Entag EL Harby history34 matches
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Draw
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.
Why a draw is the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
El Entag EL Harby are rated 36 Elo points higher
Elo 1,477 against 1,441. On rating alone El Entag EL Harby would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
El Entag EL Harby score more
1.12 goals a game over 34 matches for El Entag EL Harby, against 0.80 over 55 for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla.
-
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla concede fewer
El Entag EL Harby concede 1.38 a game, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 0.91.
-
El Entag EL Harby games more often go over 2.5 goals
50% of El Entag EL Harby matches, against 27% for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 15 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1476.6
ELO
1440.6
34
ELO · Matches
55
1476.6
Current Team ELO
1440.6
1440.6
Current Opponent ELO
1476.6
35.95
Current ELO Difference
-35.95
0.55
Expected score
0.45
34
History Matches
55
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.05
47.89
Overperformance
46.07
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals 90
34
Matches
55
1.18
PPG
1.04
29.4%
Win rate
23.6%
29.4%
Draw rate
32.7%
41.2%
Loss rate
43.6%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
45.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.5%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
Venue performance10 signals 100
17
Matches
28
0.94
PPG
0.79
17.6%
Win rate
17.9%
41.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
41.2%
Loss rate
57.1%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.05
17
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.12
Goals for per game
0.80
70.6%
Scoring rate
52.7%
55.9%
BTTS rate
34.5%
0.94
Goals for per game
0.71
64.7%
Scoring rate
53.6%
47.1%
BTTS rate
39.3%
34
History Matches
55
1.12
Goals Mean
0.80
0.93
Goals Std
0.98
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
52.7%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
18.2%
8.8%
Scored 3+ rate
5.5%
0.94
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.38
Goals against per game
0.91
76.5%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.14
70.6%
Conceding rate
78.6%
34
History Matches
55
1.38
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.11
Conceded Std
0.86
41.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.8%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.5%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
47.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
47.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
34
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.26
1.22
Stability score
2.76
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
34
Eligible Matches
55
7
Lead Matches
16
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.77
9
Trailing Matches
14
22.2%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
13
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.15
—
Portability PPG Range
0.31
—
Portability Score
76.40
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
34
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO35.95
PPG0.14
GF0.32
GA0.47
PPG0.16
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-21
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate17.9%
Scored 2+ rate14.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches-21
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches-21
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score-1.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.10
Eligible Matches-21
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate2.7%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate0.8%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-21
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO35.95
Current Opponent ELO-35.95
Current ELO Difference71.89
Expected score0.10
History Matches-21
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
El Entag EL Harby
L
El Entag EL Harby2–3El Mansura23 Oct · home
Pick: El Mansura 39% · hit L
Proxy3–2El Entag EL Harby16 Oct · away
Pick: Proxy 52% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
D
Itesalat0–0Baladiyyat Al Mehalla22 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · hit W
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla2–1Masar16 Oct · home
Pick: Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 38% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
El Entag EL Harby and Baladiyyat Al Mehalla meet in Second League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Al Salam Stadium, Cairo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: El Entag EL Harby win 26.5%, draw 36.8%, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla win 36.7%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 42.0%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.