ScoreProb
Second League Egypt Round 12 2026

Masar vs Tersana

Masar Home · Elo 1,537
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tersana Away · Elo 1,483
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Masar win
Masar winPick
44.2%
Draw
33.1%
Tersana win
22.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.9%
No56.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.9%
Under 2.559.1%

How much we know

Masar history36 matches
Tersana history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.

Why Masar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Masar are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,483. On rating alone Masar would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Masar score more

    1.39 goals a game over 36 matches for Masar, against 0.91 over 54 for Tersana.

  • Masar concede fewer

    Masar concede 0.89 a game, Tersana 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Masar matches, against 33% for Tersana. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Masar
Tersana@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.7
ELO
1482.9
36
ELO · Matches
54
1536.7
Current Team ELO
1482.9
1482.9
Current Opponent ELO
1536.7
53.77
Current ELO Difference
-53.77
0.58
Expected score
0.42
36
History Matches
54
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.89
Overperformance
48.93
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
54
1.61
PPG
1.15
44.4%
Win rate
25.9%
27.8%
Draw rate
37.0%
27.8%
Loss rate
37.0%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
53.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
27
1.06
PPG
0.93
23.5%
Win rate
18.5%
35.3%
Draw rate
37.0%
41.2%
Loss rate
44.4%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
25.9%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
7.4%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.13
17
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
0.91
63.9%
Scoring rate
59.3%
38.9%
BTTS rate
42.6%
1.12
Goals for per game
0.70
41.2%
Scoring rate
59.3%
23.5%
BTTS rate
44.4%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
36
History Matches
54
1.39
Goals Mean
0.91
1.48
Goals Std
0.99
63.9%
Scored 1+ rate
59.3%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
20.4%
19.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.89
Goals against per game
1.00
63.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.07
58.8%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
36
History Matches
54
0.89
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.81
Conceded Std
0.90
22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.8%
2.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.7%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
58.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
54
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.24
2.42
Stability score
1.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
54
14
Lead Matches
9
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.93
4
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
82.96
Rest days
82.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
13
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.09
—
Portability PPG Range
0.18
—
Portability Score
85.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO53.77
PPG0.46
GF0.48
GA-0.11
PPG0.00
PPG0.13
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate15.3%
Failed-to-score rate18.1%
History Matches-18
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate4.6%
Scored 2+ rate18.5%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.58
Stability score1.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.92
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.68
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO53.77
Current Opponent ELO-53.77
Current ELO Difference107.5
Expected score0.15
History Matches-18
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Masar

W
Masar4–2Pharco23 Oct · home
Pick: Masar 45% · hit
L
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla2–1Masar16 Oct · away
Pick: Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 38% · hit
W
Masar3–1El Dakhleya8 Oct · home
Pick: Masar 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tersana

D
Team0–0Tersana23 Oct · away
Pick: Team 35% · missed
W
Tersana4–0Mega Sport16 Oct · home
Pick: Tersana 63% · hit
D
Tersana2–2Kahraba Ismailia8 Oct · home
Pick: Kahraba Ismailia 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Masar and Tersana meet in Second League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Masar win 44.2%, draw 33.1%, Tersana win 22.7%. The pick is Masar win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.9%. Both teams to score: 43.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.