ScoreProb
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Germany Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar - 16 2026

Elversberg II vs RW Wittlich

Elversberg II Home · Elo 1,485
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
RW Wittlich Away · Elo 1,512
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: RW Wittlich win
Elversberg II win
32.3%
Draw
25.2%
RW Wittlich winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.3%
No39.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%

How much we know

Elversberg II history5 matches
RW Wittlich history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why RW Wittlich are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • RW Wittlich are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,485. On rating alone RW Wittlich would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • RW Wittlich score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 5 matches for Elversberg II, against 2.33 over 3 for RW Wittlich.

  • Defences are close

    Elversberg II concede 2.20 a game, RW Wittlich 2.00.

  • RW Wittlich games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Elversberg II matches, against 67% for RW Wittlich. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elversberg II
RW Wittlich
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.5
ELO
1512.4
5
ELO · Matches
3
1484.5
Current Team ELO
1512.4
1512.4
Current Opponent ELO
1484.5
-27.84
Current ELO Difference
27.84
0.46
Expected score
0.54
5
History Matches
3
-0.17
Residual Mean
0.18
46.53
Overperformance
52.30
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
66.7%
5
Matches
3
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
66.7%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.33
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.47
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.63
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
5
Matches
3
0.80
PPG
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
66.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
5
History Matches
3
1.00
Goals Mean
2.33
0.63
Goals Std
0.47
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
100.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
5
History Matches
3
2.20
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.72
Conceded Std
1.63
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
5
History Matches
3
0.86
Result entropy
0.58
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.70
13.50
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
3
1
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
1
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.67
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.02
Rest days
78.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
3
Long Rest History Matches
1
0.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
4
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
25.0%
Win rate
66.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
2
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
5
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-27.84
PPG-1.20
GF-1.33
GA0.20
PPG-1.00
PPG0.00
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Failed-to-score rate50.0%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-1.33
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.80
Scored 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches2
Result entropy0.29
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-28.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO-27.84
Current Opponent ELO27.84
Current ELO Difference-55.67
Expected score-0.08
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.35
Overperformance-5.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Elversberg II

L
Gonsenheim3–1Elversberg II31 Oct · away
Pick: Gonsenheim 59% · hit
W
Elversberg II4–2Auersmacher23 Oct · home
Pick: Elversberg II 41% · hit
W
Ahrweiler0–3Elversberg II18 Oct · away
Pick: Elversberg II 41% · hit
W
Elversberg II4–3Diefflen30 Aug · home
Pick: Elversberg II 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

RW Wittlich

L
RW Wittlich0–2Pirmasens31 Oct · home
Pick: Pirmasens 37% · hit
L
TuS RW Koblenz2–1RW Wittlich24 Oct · away
Pick: TuS RW Koblenz 64% · hit
W
RW Wittlich4–1Hertha Wiesbach29 Aug · home
Pick: RW Wittlich 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Elversberg II and RW Wittlich meet in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Elversberg II win 32.3%, draw 25.2%, RW Wittlich win 42.5%. The pick is RW Wittlich win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 60.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.