ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 17 2026

Enisey vs FC Sochi

Enisey Home · Elo 1,561
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Sochi Away · Elo 1,485
Tsentralnyi Stadion, Krasnoyarsk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Enisey win
Enisey winPick
39.6%
Draw
25.6%
FC Sochi win
34.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%

How much we know

Enisey history76 matches
FC Sochi history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Enisey are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Enisey are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,485. On rating alone Enisey would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • FC Sochi score more

    1.21 goals a game over 76 matches for Enisey, against 1.42 over 74 for FC Sochi.

  • Enisey concede fewer

    Enisey concede 1.12 a game, FC Sochi 1.77.

  • FC Sochi games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Enisey matches, against 66% for FC Sochi. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Enisey
FC Sochi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1560.6
ELO
1485.0
76
ELO · Matches
74
1560.6
Current Team ELO
1485.0
1485.0
Current Opponent ELO
1560.6
75.61
Current ELO Difference
-75.61
0.61
Expected score
0.39
76
History Matches
74
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.11
Overperformance
50.88
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
74
1.50
PPG
1.18
39.5%
Win rate
32.4%
31.6%
Draw rate
20.3%
28.9%
Loss rate
47.3%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.1%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.2%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
29
1.84
PPG
0.97
50.0%
Win rate
27.6%
34.2%
Draw rate
13.8%
15.8%
Loss rate
58.6%
57.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
38
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.42
60.5%
Scoring rate
73.0%
39.5%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.24
68.4%
Scoring rate
75.9%
36.8%
BTTS rate
62.1%
1.57
Goals for per game
2.00
71.4%
Scoring rate
85.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
76
History Matches
74
1.21
Goals Mean
1.42
1.36
Goals Std
1.26
60.5%
Scored 1+ rate
73.0%
32.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.9%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
1.77
60.5%
Conceding rate
82.4%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.97
50.0%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.29
85.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
76
History Matches
74
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.17
Conceded Std
1.21
32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.1%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.0%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
39.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
39.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
74
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.88
0.80
Stability score
5.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
70
22
Lead Matches
20
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
65.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.70
11
Trailing Matches
25
9.1%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.08
Rest days
75.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
10
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
42
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.29
PPG
1.86
28.6%
Win rate
57.1%
42.9%
Draw rate
14.3%
28.6%
Loss rate
28.6%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.29
Current Competition PPG
1.86
-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.71
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.53
Portability PPG Range
1.52
71.27
Portability Score
47.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO75.61
PPG0.32
GF-0.21
GA-0.65
PPG-0.57
PPG0.88
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Failed-to-score rate12.4%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate32.8%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.65
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-4.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate21.4%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.86
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.36
Portability PPG Range-1.00
Portability Score24.19
Rest days1.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.70
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO75.61
Current Opponent ELO-75.61
Current ELO Difference151.2
Expected score0.21
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Enisey

L
Ska-khabarovsk3–0Enisey24 Oct · away
Pick: Enisey 44% · missed
W
Enisey2–0Kaluga14 Oct · home
Pick: Enisey 47% · hit
D
Enisey0–0Shinnik Yaroslavl30 Aug · home
Pick: Enisey 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Sochi

L
FC Sochi0–2Ural1 Nov · home
Pick: Ural 45% · hit
W
Tekstilshchik1–3FC Sochi24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Sochi 45% · hit
W
Rotor Volgograd0–1FC Sochi16 Oct · away
Pick: Rotor Volgograd 41% · missed
W
FC Sochi2–1Chelyabinsk30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Sochi 56% · hit
W
KAMAZ2–3FC Sochi24 Aug · away
Pick: FC Sochi 45% · hit

About this match

Enisey and FC Sochi meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Krasnoyarsk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Enisey win 39.6%, draw 25.6%, FC Sochi win 34.8%. The pick is Enisey win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.