ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 17 2026

Ska-khabarovsk vs Tekstilshchik

Ska-khabarovsk Home · Elo 1,456
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tekstilshchik Away · Elo 1,532
Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina, Khabarovsk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tekstilshchik win
Ska-khabarovsk win
31.3%
Draw
25.6%
Tekstilshchik winPick
43.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%

How much we know

Ska-khabarovsk history62 matches
Tekstilshchik history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tekstilshchik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tekstilshchik are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,456. On rating alone Tekstilshchik would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Tekstilshchik score more

    1.21 goals a game over 62 matches for Ska-khabarovsk, against 1.38 over 69 for Tekstilshchik.

  • Tekstilshchik concede fewer

    Ska-khabarovsk concede 1.45 a game, Tekstilshchik 0.97.

  • Ska-khabarovsk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Ska-khabarovsk matches, against 43% for Tekstilshchik. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ska-khabarovsk
Tekstilshchik
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.1
ELO
1532.1
62
ELO · Matches
69
1456.1
Current Team ELO
1532.1
1532.1
Current Opponent ELO
1456.1
-76.07
Current ELO Difference
76.07
0.39
Expected score
0.61
62
History Matches
69
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.98
Overperformance
51.34
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.90
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.10
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.80
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
69
1.32
PPG
1.65
37.1%
Win rate
46.4%
21.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
41.9%
Loss rate
27.5%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
36
1.56
PPG
1.58
44.1%
Win rate
47.2%
23.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
32.4%
Loss rate
36.1%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
34
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.38
77.4%
Scoring rate
73.9%
54.8%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.22
85.3%
Scoring rate
69.4%
58.8%
BTTS rate
41.7%
0.86
Goals for per game
0.63
57.1%
Scoring rate
50.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
37.5%
62
History Matches
69
1.21
Goals Mean
1.38
0.99
Goals Std
1.19
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.9%
29.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.0%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
0.97
74.2%
Conceding rate
59.4%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.08
70.6%
Conceding rate
63.9%
2.14
Goals against per game
1.25
85.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
62
History Matches
69
1.45
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.19
Conceded Std
1.10
43.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.6%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
69
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.71
3.53
Stability score
3.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
69
15
Lead Matches
26
93.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.81
21
Trailing Matches
12
14.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.96
Rest days
77.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
8
0.43
PPG
0.75
14.3%
Win rate
12.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
37.5%
85.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.99
7
Current Competition Matches
8
0.43
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.63
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.42
Portability PPG Range
1.36
47.67
Portability Score
50.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-76.07
PPG-0.33
GF-0.17
GA0.48
PPG-0.32
PPG-0.02
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate3.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate13.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score0.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate16.4%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.32
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.66
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-2.74
Rest days-2.31
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-76.07
Current Opponent ELO76.07
Current ELO Difference-152.1
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ska-khabarovsk

W
Ska-khabarovsk3–0Enisey24 Oct · home
Pick: Enisey 44% · missed
W
Ska-khabarovsk2–0Dinamo Kirov14 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Kirov 41% · missed
W
Znamya Noginsk0–4Ska-khabarovsk9 Sep · away
Pick: Ska-khabarovsk 36% · hit
L
Ska-khabarovsk0–2Torpedo Moskva30 Aug · home
Pick: Torpedo Moskva 59% · hit
L
Nizhny Novgorod4–2Ska-khabarovsk24 Aug · away
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 65% · hit

Tekstilshchik

L
Tekstilshchik1–3FC Sochi24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Sochi 45% · hit
L
Chertanovo Moscow2–1Tekstilshchik14 Oct · away
Pick: Tekstilshchik 49% · missed
L
Tekstilshchik0–1Veles29 Aug · home
Pick: Tekstilshchik 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ska-khabarovsk and Tekstilshchik meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina, Khabarovsk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ska-khabarovsk win 31.3%, draw 25.6%, Tekstilshchik win 43.1%. The pick is Tekstilshchik win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.7%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.