ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 17 2026

Torpedo Moskva vs FK Neftekhimik

Torpedo Moskva Home · Elo 1,580
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FK Neftekhimik Away · Elo 1,501
Arena Khimki Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Torpedo Moskva win
Torpedo Moskva winPick
58.9%
Draw
22.5%
FK Neftekhimik win
18.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.3%
No53.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%

How much we know

Torpedo Moskva history73 matches
FK Neftekhimik history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Torpedo Moskva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Torpedo Moskva are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,501. On rating alone Torpedo Moskva would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Torpedo Moskva score more

    1.26 goals a game over 73 matches for Torpedo Moskva, against 1.07 over 69 for FK Neftekhimik.

  • Torpedo Moskva concede fewer

    Torpedo Moskva concede 1.01 a game, FK Neftekhimik 1.25.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Torpedo Moskva matches, against 30% for FK Neftekhimik. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Torpedo Moskva
FK Neftekhimik
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.5
ELO
1500.6
73
ELO · Matches
69
1580.5
Current Team ELO
1500.6
1500.6
Current Opponent ELO
1580.5
79.94
Current ELO Difference
-79.94
0.61
Expected score
0.39
73
History Matches
69
0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
54.63
Overperformance
50.02
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
0.90
0.50
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
69
1.58
PPG
1.19
45.2%
Win rate
27.5%
21.9%
Draw rate
36.2%
32.9%
Loss rate
36.2%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.4%
17.8%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
35
1.63
PPG
1.17
44.7%
Win rate
28.6%
28.9%
Draw rate
31.4%
26.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
31.4%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
38
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.07
74.0%
Scoring rate
62.3%
39.7%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.11
76.3%
Scoring rate
65.7%
44.7%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.86
Goals for per game
0.57
85.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
42.9%
BTTS rate
14.3%
73
History Matches
69
1.26
Goals Mean
1.07
1.11
Goals Std
1.22
74.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.3%
31.5%
Scored 2+ rate
24.6%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
11.6%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.01
Goals against per game
1.25
58.9%
Conceding rate
69.6%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.37
57.9%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.43
57.1%
Conceding rate
57.1%
73
History Matches
69
1.01
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.03
Conceded Std
1.20
32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
41.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
41.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
69
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.61
3.76
Stability score
0.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
69
25
Lead Matches
17
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.75
19
Trailing Matches
26
15.8%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.98
Rest days
75.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
48
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.86
PPG
1.29
57.1%
Win rate
42.9%
14.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
57.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
42.9%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
14.3%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.86
Current Competition PPG
1.29
1.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.86
6
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.81
56.23
Portability Score
63.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO79.94
PPG0.39
GF0.19
GA-0.23
PPG0.57
PPG0.46
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate22.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate11.7%
Scored 2+ rate6.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.82
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score3.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate15.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-7.42
Rest days2.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO79.94
Current Opponent ELO-79.94
Current ELO Difference159.9
Expected score0.23
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Torpedo Moskva

D
KAMAZ1–1Torpedo Moskva1 Nov · away
Pick: Torpedo Moskva 51% · missed
W
Ska-khabarovsk0–2Torpedo Moskva30 Aug · away
Pick: Torpedo Moskva 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FK Neftekhimik

W
Rotor Volgograd0–1FK Neftekhimik24 Aug · away
Pick: Rotor Volgograd 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Torpedo Moskva and FK Neftekhimik meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Arena Khimki. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Torpedo Moskva win 58.9%, draw 22.5%, FK Neftekhimik win 18.7%. The pick is Torpedo Moskva win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.0%. Both teams to score: 46.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.