ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Tunisia Round 7 2026

ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis

ES Metlaoui Home · Elo 1,496
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
ES Zarzis Away · Elo 1,546
Metlaoui Municipal stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ES Zarzis win
ES Metlaoui win
31.1%
Draw
30.8%
ES Zarzis winPick
38.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.8%
No58.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.531.9%
Under 2.568.1%

How much we know

ES Metlaoui history48 matches
ES Zarzis history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why ES Zarzis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • ES Zarzis are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,496. On rating alone ES Zarzis would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • ES Zarzis score more

    0.85 goals a game over 48 matches for ES Metlaoui, against 1.08 over 52 for ES Zarzis.

  • Defences are close

    ES Metlaoui concede 1.00 a game, ES Zarzis 0.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    27% of ES Metlaoui matches, against 35% for ES Zarzis. The model puts this match at 32% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ES Metlaoui
ES Zarzis@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.3
ELO
1546.2
48
ELO · Matches
52
1496.3
Current Team ELO
1546.2
1546.2
Current Opponent ELO
1496.3
-49.82
Current ELO Difference
49.82
0.43
Expected score
0.57
48
History Matches
52
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.50
Overperformance
52.94
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.50
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
52
1.31
PPG
1.54
31.3%
Win rate
44.2%
37.5%
Draw rate
21.2%
31.3%
Loss rate
34.6%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
27.1%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.67
PPG
1.30
40.7%
Win rate
37.0%
44.4%
Draw rate
18.5%
14.8%
Loss rate
44.4%
51.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.85
Goals for per game
1.08
60.4%
Scoring rate
65.4%
35.4%
BTTS rate
30.8%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.11
66.7%
Scoring rate
63.0%
37.0%
BTTS rate
37.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
48
History Matches
52
0.85
Goals Mean
1.08
0.82
Goals Std
1.02
60.4%
Scored 1+ rate
65.4%
22.9%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
2.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.6%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
0.92
56.3%
Conceding rate
51.9%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.26
44.4%
Conceding rate
63.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
48
History Matches
52
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.10
Conceded Std
1.14
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
39.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
39.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
52
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.34
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.35
Stability score
3.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
52
10
Lead Matches
14
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
13
28.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.25
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
75.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
30
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
15
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.59
80.77
Portability Score
69.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-49.82
PPG-0.23
GF-0.22
GA0.08
PPG-3.00
PPG0.37
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-3.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate28.6%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score10.95
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO-49.82
Current Opponent ELO49.82
Current ELO Difference-99.64
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ES Metlaoui

L
ES Sahel2–1ES Metlaoui30 Aug · away
Pick: ES Sahel 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

ES Zarzis

L
Stade Tunisien1–0ES Zarzis29 Oct · away
Pick: Stade Tunisien 47% · hit
L
ES Zarzis1–3Réal Bamako17 Oct · home
Pick: ES Zarzis 48% · missed
L
CS Sfaxien2–1ES Zarzis29 Aug · away
Pick: CS Sfaxien 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ES Metlaoui and ES Zarzis meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Metlaoui Municipal stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ES Metlaoui win 31.1%, draw 30.8%, ES Zarzis win 38.0%. The pick is ES Zarzis win. Over 2.5 goals: 31.9%. Both teams to score: 41.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.