ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Tunisia Round 7 2026

ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne

ES Tunis Home · Elo 1,704
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
US Monastirienne Away · Elo 1,556
Stade Hedi-Enneifer, Le Bardo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ES Tunis win
ES Tunis winPick
55.5%
Draw
30.0%
US Monastirienne win
14.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.5%
No58.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.2%
Under 2.559.8%

How much we know

ES Tunis history75 matches
US Monastirienne history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why ES Tunis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • ES Tunis are rated 148 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,704 against 1,556. On rating alone ES Tunis would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • ES Tunis score more

    1.79 goals a game over 75 matches for ES Tunis, against 1.22 over 58 for US Monastirienne.

  • Defences are close

    ES Tunis concede 0.56 a game, US Monastirienne 0.53.

  • ES Tunis games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of ES Tunis matches, against 33% for US Monastirienne. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ES Tunis
US Monastirienne@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1704.4
ELO
1556.1
75
ELO · Matches
58
1704.4
Current Team ELO
1556.1
1556.1
Current Opponent ELO
1704.4
148.4
Current ELO Difference
-148.4
0.70
Expected score
0.30
75
History Matches
58
0.13
Residual Mean
0.05
60.27
Overperformance
53.86
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
0.50
Goals against per game
0.40
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
58
2.17
PPG
1.71
65.3%
Win rate
44.8%
21.3%
Draw rate
36.2%
13.3%
Loss rate
19.0%
61.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
42.7%
Over 2.5 rate
32.8%
25.3%
Over 3.5 rate
10.3%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
27
2.36
PPG
1.26
72.2%
Win rate
25.9%
19.4%
Draw rate
48.1%
8.3%
Loss rate
25.9%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
37.0%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
25.9%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
7.4%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
36
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.79
Goals for per game
1.22
78.7%
Scoring rate
58.6%
28.0%
BTTS rate
25.9%
1.83
Goals for per game
0.70
80.6%
Scoring rate
44.4%
27.8%
BTTS rate
29.6%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
75
History Matches
58
1.79
Goals Mean
1.22
1.45
Goals Std
1.49
78.7%
Scored 1+ rate
58.6%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
32.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.56
Goals against per game
0.53
38.7%
Conceding rate
41.4%
0.56
Goals against per game
0.63
36.1%
Conceding rate
48.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
75
History Matches
58
0.56
Conceded Mean
0.53
0.79
Conceded Std
0.72
16.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
10.3%
1.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.7%
0.56
Venue Conceded Mean
0.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
61.3%
Clean-sheet rate
58.6%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
63.9%
Clean-sheet rate
51.9%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
61.3%
Clean-sheet rate
58.6%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
63.9%
Clean-sheet rate
51.9%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
61.3%
Clean-sheet rate
58.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
58
0.80
Result entropy
0.95
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.75
20.23
Stability score
5.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
58
38
Lead Matches
23
97.4%
Lead Win Rate
91.3%
0.98
Lead Points Retention
0.94
9
Trailing Matches
7
44.4%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.19
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
10
2.62
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.90
42
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
19
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.07
Portability PPG Range
1.00
52.91
Portability Score
54.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO148.4
PPG0.47
GF0.56
GA0.03
PPG2.00
PPG1.10
PPG1.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate20.0%
Scored 2+ rate16.6%
Scored 3+ rate16.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score15.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate1.6%
Trailing Win Rate22.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-2.00
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.72
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO148.4
Current Opponent ELO-148.4
Current ELO Difference296.7
Expected score0.40
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ES Tunis

D
CS Sfaxien0–0ES Tunis29 Oct · away
Pick: ES Tunis 39% · missed
L
Asswehly1–0ES Tunis18 Oct · away
Pick: ES Tunis 59% · missed
L
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane3–1ES Tunis30 Aug · away
Pick: ES Tunis 69% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

US Monastirienne

W
US Monastirienne2–1Stade Tunisien29 Aug · home
Pick: US Monastirienne 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ES Tunis and US Monastirienne meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stade Hedi-Enneifer, Le Bardo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ES Tunis win 55.5%, draw 30.0%, US Monastirienne win 14.5%. The pick is ES Tunis win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.2%. Both teams to score: 41.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.