ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Tunisia Round 7 2026

ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien

ES Sahel Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
CS Sfaxien Away · Elo 1,626
Stade Olympique de Sousse Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CS Sfaxien win
ES Sahel win
29.5%
Draw
30.7%
CS Sfaxien winPick
39.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.8%
No57.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.9%
Under 2.562.1%

How much we know

ES Sahel history55 matches
CS Sfaxien history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why CS Sfaxien are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CS Sfaxien are rated 88 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,626 against 1,539. On rating alone CS Sfaxien would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.24 goals a game over 55 matches for ES Sahel, against 1.24 over 54 for CS Sfaxien.

  • CS Sfaxien concede fewer

    ES Sahel concede 0.95 a game, CS Sfaxien 0.46.

  • ES Sahel games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of ES Sahel matches, against 24% for CS Sfaxien. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ES Sahel
CS Sfaxien@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.6
ELO
1626.4
55
ELO · Matches
54
1538.6
Current Team ELO
1626.4
1626.4
Current Opponent ELO
1538.6
-87.76
Current ELO Difference
87.76
0.38
Expected score
0.62
55
History Matches
54
0.03
Residual Mean
0.12
52.13
Overperformance
58.42
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.50
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
54
1.64
PPG
1.85
49.1%
Win rate
51.9%
16.4%
Draw rate
29.6%
34.5%
Loss rate
18.5%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
51.9%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
24.1%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
7.4%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.88
PPG
1.70
57.7%
Win rate
44.4%
15.4%
Draw rate
37.0%
26.9%
Loss rate
18.5%
42.3%
Over 1.5 rate
44.4%
23.1%
Over 2.5 rate
18.5%
3.8%
Over 3.5 rate
3.7%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.24
72.7%
Scoring rate
72.2%
34.5%
BTTS rate
27.8%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.07
73.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
23.1%
BTTS rate
25.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
54
1.24
Goals Mean
1.24
1.09
Goals Std
1.15
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.2%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
31.5%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.95
Goals against per game
0.46
54.5%
Conceding rate
40.7%
0.54
Goals against per game
0.44
42.3%
Conceding rate
40.7%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
54
0.95
Conceded Mean
0.46
1.12
Conceded Std
0.60
21.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
5.6%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.54
Venue Conceded Mean
0.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
59.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
57.7%
Clean-sheet rate
59.3%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
59.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
57.7%
Clean-sheet rate
59.3%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
59.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
54
0.92
Result entropy
0.92
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.41
7.82
Stability score
7.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
54
18
Lead Matches
22
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.91
14
Trailing Matches
9
21.4%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.24
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.89
16
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.90
Portability PPG Range
0.82
57.77
Portability Score
59.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-87.76
PPG-0.22
GF0.00
GA0.48
PPG-1.00
PPG0.18
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate0.5%
Scored 2+ rate3.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.52
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate16.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.04
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score0.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.96
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate2.5%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-2.20
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.29
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-87.76
Current Opponent ELO87.76
Current ELO Difference-175.5
Expected score-0.25
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ES Sahel

W
ES Sahel2–1ES Metlaoui30 Aug · home
Pick: ES Sahel 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

CS Sfaxien

D
CS Sfaxien0–0ES Tunis29 Oct · home
Pick: ES Tunis 39% · missed
W
CS Sfaxien1–0AFAD24 Oct · home
Pick: CS Sfaxien 61% · hit
D
AFAD1–1CS Sfaxien17 Oct · away
Pick: CS Sfaxien 42% · missed
W
CS Sfaxien2–1ES Zarzis29 Aug · home
Pick: CS Sfaxien 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ES Sahel and CS Sfaxien meet in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stade Olympique de Sousse. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ES Sahel win 29.5%, draw 30.7%, CS Sfaxien win 39.9%. The pick is CS Sfaxien win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.9%. Both teams to score: 42.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.