ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Escobedo vs Atlético Mineros

Escobedo Home · Elo 1,571
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Mineros Away · Elo 1,463
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Escobedo win
Escobedo winPick
65.2%
Draw
19.7%
Atlético Mineros win
15.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Escobedo history52 matches
Atlético Mineros history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Escobedo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Escobedo are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,571 against 1,463. On rating alone Escobedo would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Escobedo score far more

    1.62 goals a game over 52 matches for Escobedo, against 0.67 over 15 for Atlético Mineros.

  • Escobedo concede fewer

    Escobedo concede 1.10 a game, Atlético Mineros 1.53.

  • Escobedo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Escobedo matches, against 33% for Atlético Mineros. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Escobedo
Atlético Mineros@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1571.0
ELO
1463.2
52
ELO · Matches
15
1571.0
Current Team ELO
1463.2
1463.2
Current Opponent ELO
1571.0
107.8
Current ELO Difference
-107.8
0.65
Expected score
0.35
52
History Matches
15
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.13
55.13
Overperformance
44.51
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
15
1.73
PPG
0.87
51.9%
Win rate
20.0%
17.3%
Draw rate
26.7%
30.8%
Loss rate
53.3%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
8
2.15
PPG
1.13
66.7%
Win rate
25.0%
14.8%
Draw rate
37.5%
18.5%
Loss rate
37.5%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
27
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.62
Goals for per game
0.67
65.4%
Scoring rate
40.0%
40.4%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.93
Goals for per game
0.88
70.4%
Scoring rate
50.0%
40.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
15
1.62
Goals Mean
0.67
1.64
Goals Std
0.94
65.4%
Scored 1+ rate
40.0%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
28.8%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.10
Goals against per game
1.53
61.5%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.38
55.6%
Conceding rate
87.5%
52
History Matches
15
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.11
Conceded Std
1.20
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
15
0.92
Result entropy
0.92
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.59
8.38
Stability score
8.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
14
16
Lead Matches
1
93.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
6
38.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
30.8%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.21
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
168.0
Rest days
546.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
27
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.15
Portability PPG Std
—
0.30
Portability PPG Range
—
77.21
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO107.8
PPG0.86
GF0.95
GA-0.44
PPG1.02
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches37
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate31.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches37
Goals Mean0.95
Goals Std0.70
Scored 1+ rate25.4%
Scored 2+ rate26.2%
Scored 3+ rate22.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std1.06
History Matches37
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.39
History Matches37
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score0.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate5.1%
Trailing Win Rate14.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-378.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.29
Long Rest History Matches22
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO107.8
Current Opponent ELO-107.8
Current ELO Difference215.6
Expected score0.30
History Matches37
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance10.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Escobedo

D
Atlético Albericia1–1Escobedo31 Oct · away
Pick: Escobedo 39% · missed
D
Escobedo2–2Tropezón25 Oct · home
Pick: Tropezón 42% · missed
L
Castro3–0Escobedo17 Oct · away
Pick: Castro 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlético Mineros

D
Atlético Albericia3–3Atlético Mineros24 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Albericia 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Escobedo and Atlético Mineros meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Escobedo win 65.2%, draw 19.7%, Atlético Mineros win 15.1%. The pick is Escobedo win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.