Naval Reinosa vs Atlético Albericia
Naval Reinosa
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Albericia
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Albericia win
Naval Reinosa win
33.8%
Draw
30.2%
Atlético Albericia winPick
36.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.3%
No44.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%
How much we know
Naval Reinosa history0 matches
Atlético Albericia history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Atlético Albericia
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Atlético Albericia are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Atlético Albericia are rated 37 Elo points higher
Elo 1,537 against 1,500. On rating alone Atlético Albericia would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Naval Reinosa
Atlético Albericia
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1537.2
0
ELO · Matches
50
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1537.2
1537.2
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-37.18
Current ELO Difference
37.18
0.45
Expected score
0.55
0
History Matches
50
—
Residual Mean
0.04
—
Overperformance
52.54
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
0.80
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Goals against per game
2.80
—
Win rate
20.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.20
—
Goals for per game
1.70
—
Goals against per game
1.80
—
Win rate
30.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
50
—
PPG
1.68
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Draw rate
18.0%
—
Loss rate
32.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
58.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
25
—
PPG
1.48
—
Win rate
44.0%
—
Draw rate
16.0%
—
Loss rate
40.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
44.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
0
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.74
—
Scoring rate
80.0%
—
BTTS rate
58.0%
—
Goals for per game
1.88
—
Scoring rate
84.0%
—
BTTS rate
64.0%
0
History Matches
50
—
Goals Mean
1.74
—
Goals Std
1.31
—
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
—
Scored 2+ rate
58.0%
—
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.88
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.20
—
Conceding rate
72.0%
—
Goals against per game
1.44
—
Conceding rate
76.0%
0
History Matches
50
—
Conceded Mean
1.20
—
Conceded Std
1.04
—
Conceded 2+ rate
32.0%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
50
—
Result entropy
0.93
—
Goal Difference Std
1.56
—
Stability score
7.17
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
49
0
Lead Matches
16
—
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.69
0
Trailing Matches
8
—
Non-loss rate
50.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
37.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
25
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
0
Long Rest History Matches
23
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.13
—
Portability PPG Range
0.26
—
Portability Score
79.33
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-37.18
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-50
History Matches-25
History Matches-50
History Matches-50
History Matches-50
Eligible Matches-49
Lead Matches-16
Trailing Matches-8
Halftime Coverage Matches-49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-25
Long Rest History Matches-23
Current Team ELO-37.18
Current Opponent ELO37.18
Current ELO Difference-74.35
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-50
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Naval Reinosa
L
Tropezón4–0Naval Reinosa31 Oct · away
Pick: Tropezón 66% · hit W
Naval Reinosa2–1Castro25 Oct · home
Pick: Naval Reinosa 35% · hit L
Revilla3–2Naval Reinosa18 Oct · away
Pick: Revilla 65% · hit L
Selaya3–2Naval Reinosa4 Oct · away
Pick: Selaya 59% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Atlético Albericia
D
Atlético Albericia1–1Escobedo31 Oct · home
Pick: Escobedo 39% · missed D
Atlético Albericia3–3Atlético Mineros24 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Albericia 66% · missed D
Tropezón0–0Atlético Albericia18 Oct · away
Pick: Tropezón 56% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Naval Reinosa and Atlético Albericia meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Naval Reinosa win 33.8%, draw 30.2%, Atlético Albericia win 36.1%. The pick is Atlético Albericia win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.