ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Barquereño vs Tropezón

Barquereño Home · Elo 1,431
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tropezón Away · Elo 1,601
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tropezón win
Barquereño win
24.2%
Draw
25.6%
Tropezón winPick
50.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%

How much we know

Barquereño history49 matches
Tropezón history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Tropezón are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tropezón are rated 171 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,601 against 1,431. On rating alone Tropezón would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Tropezón score more

    1.27 goals a game over 49 matches for Barquereño, against 1.41 over 59 for Tropezón.

  • Tropezón concede fewer

    Barquereño concede 1.92 a game, Tropezón 0.76.

  • Barquereño games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Barquereño matches, against 37% for Tropezón. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barquereño
Tropezón
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1430.6
ELO
1601.2
49
ELO · Matches
59
1430.6
Current Team ELO
1601.2
1601.2
Current Opponent ELO
1430.6
-170.6
Current ELO Difference
170.6
0.27
Expected score
0.73
49
History Matches
59
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.09
44.60
Overperformance
56.37
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.40
Goals against per game
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.90
2.40
Goals against per game
0.40
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
59
1.04
PPG
1.85
26.5%
Win rate
54.2%
24.5%
Draw rate
22.0%
49.0%
Loss rate
23.7%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.3%
38.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
29
1.52
PPG
1.72
43.5%
Win rate
51.7%
21.7%
Draw rate
17.2%
34.8%
Loss rate
31.0%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
23
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.27
Goals for per game
1.41
67.3%
Scoring rate
71.2%
55.1%
BTTS rate
35.6%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.38
73.9%
Scoring rate
75.9%
52.2%
BTTS rate
37.9%
49
History Matches
59
1.27
Goals Mean
1.41
1.24
Goals Std
1.34
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
36.7%
Scored 2+ rate
35.6%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
23.7%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.92
Goals against per game
0.76
77.6%
Conceding rate
50.8%
1.70
Goals against per game
0.90
69.6%
Conceding rate
55.2%
49
History Matches
59
1.92
Conceded Mean
0.76
1.61
Conceded Std
0.91
53.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.6%
34.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.8%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
0.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
49.2%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
49.2%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
49.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
59
0.95
Result entropy
0.92
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.66
4.77
Stability score
8.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
57
10
Lead Matches
18
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.87
16
Trailing Matches
9
12.5%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
1.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.0
Rest days
141.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
31
0.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
20
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.13
71.26
Portability Score
89.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-170.6
PPG-0.81
GF-0.14
GA1.16
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate1.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean1.16
Conceded Std0.71
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Conceded 2+ rate34.4%
Conceded 3+ rate27.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.76
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-3.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.25
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate1.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.76
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-18.38
Rest days42.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-170.6
Current Opponent ELO170.6
Current ELO Difference-341.2
Expected score-0.46
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-11.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barquereño

W
Castro0–1Barquereño31 Oct · away
Pick: Castro 52% · missed
L
Barquereño1–3Revilla25 Oct · home
Pick: Barquereño 46% · missed
D
Solares2–2Barquereño18 Oct · away
Pick: Solares 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tropezón

W
Tropezón4–0Naval Reinosa31 Oct · home
Pick: Tropezón 66% · hit
D
Escobedo2–2Tropezón25 Oct · away
Pick: Tropezón 42% · missed
D
Tropezón0–0Atlético Albericia18 Oct · home
Pick: Tropezón 56% · missed
W
Castro0–2Tropezón4 Oct · away
Pick: Tropezón 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Barquereño and Tropezón meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Barquereño win 24.2%, draw 25.6%, Tropezón win 50.2%. The pick is Tropezón win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.5%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.