ScoreProb
Primera División Costa Rica Round 15 2026

Escorpiones Belén vs LD Alajuelense

Escorpiones Belén Home · Elo 1,598
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
LD Alajuelense Away · Elo 1,593
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: LD Alajuelense win
Escorpiones Belén win
31.8%
Draw
20.8%
LD Alajuelense winPick
47.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Escorpiones Belén history51 matches
LD Alajuelense history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 17 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 02:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why LD Alajuelense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,598 against 1,593. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Escorpiones Belén score more

    1.92 goals a game over 51 matches for Escorpiones Belén, against 1.27 over 85 for LD Alajuelense.

  • LD Alajuelense concede fewer

    Escorpiones Belén concede 1.08 a game, LD Alajuelense 0.78.

  • Escorpiones Belén games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Escorpiones Belén matches, against 32% for LD Alajuelense. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Escorpiones Belén
LD Alajuelense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1598.4
ELO
1593.3
51
ELO · Matches
85
1598.4
Current Team ELO
1593.3
1593.3
Current Opponent ELO
1598.4
5.10
Current ELO Difference
-5.10
0.51
Expected score
0.49
51
History Matches
85
0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
56.10
Overperformance
54.16
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
2.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
85
1.96
PPG
1.68
56.9%
Win rate
43.5%
25.5%
Draw rate
37.6%
17.6%
Loss rate
18.8%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
31.8%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
43
2.26
PPG
1.58
65.2%
Win rate
39.5%
30.4%
Draw rate
39.5%
4.3%
Loss rate
20.9%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.2%
56.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.3%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
23
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.27
86.3%
Scoring rate
76.5%
54.9%
BTTS rate
48.2%
2.43
Goals for per game
1.30
87.0%
Scoring rate
76.7%
52.2%
BTTS rate
58.1%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.60
50.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
51
History Matches
85
1.92
Goals Mean
1.27
1.45
Goals Std
1.03
86.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
60.8%
Scored 2+ rate
35.3%
23.5%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
2.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
0.78
60.8%
Conceding rate
58.8%
0.87
Goals against per game
0.93
52.2%
Conceding rate
69.8%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
75.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
51
History Matches
85
1.08
Conceded Mean
0.78
1.15
Conceded Std
0.77
27.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.5%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.4%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
13.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
13.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
85
0.89
Result entropy
0.95
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.20
11.20
Stability score
4.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
85
23
Lead Matches
28
95.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.79
8
Trailing Matches
10
50.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.13
Rest days
73.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
20
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.15
28
Normal Rest History Matches
52
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
18
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
0.25
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
4
Current Competition Matches
5
0.25
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
4
Competition Season Count
10
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.87
Portability PPG Std
0.18
1.94
Portability PPG Range
0.40
36.39
Portability Score
73.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO5.10
PPG0.28
GF0.65
GA0.30
PPG-1.75
PPG0.68
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-34
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-34
Goals Mean0.65
Goals Std0.42
Scored 1+ rate9.8%
Scored 2+ rate25.5%
Scored 3+ rate11.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.86
History Matches-34
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate11.0%
Conceded 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.73
History Matches-34
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.67
Stability score6.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.44
Eligible Matches-34
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate24.2%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-34
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.30
Competition Season Count-6
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.70
Portability PPG Range1.54
Portability Score-37.28
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-16
Short Rest Points Per Match0.35
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO5.10
Current Opponent ELO-5.10
Current ELO Difference10.20
Expected score0.01
History Matches-34
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Escorpiones Belén

W
Inter San Carlos2–3Escorpiones Belén31 Oct · away
Pick: Inter San Carlos 64% · missed
L
Escorpiones Belén2–4Sporting San Jose24 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting San Jose 40% · hit
L
Escorpiones Belén1–2Puntarenas FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Escorpiones Belén 42% · missed
W
Perez Zeledon1–4Escorpiones Belén14 Oct · away
Pick: Perez Zeledon 45% · missed
L
Deportivo Saprissa2–1Escorpiones Belén31 Aug · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 68% · hit

LD Alajuelense

D
Deportivo Saprissa0–0LD Alajuelense1 Nov · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 48% · missed
W
LD Alajuelense2–1CD Motagua30 Oct · home
Pick: LD Alajuelense 39% · hit
W
LD Alajuelense1–0Perez Zeledon26 Oct · home
Pick: LD Alajuelense 68% · hit
D
CD Motagua0–0LD Alajuelense23 Oct · away
Pick: CD Motagua 44% · missed
W
Inter San Carlos2–3LD Alajuelense18 Oct · away
Pick: LD Alajuelense 44% · hit

About this match

Escorpiones Belén and LD Alajuelense meet in Primera División on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 02:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Escorpiones Belén win 31.8%, draw 20.8%, LD Alajuelense win 47.4%. The pick is LD Alajuelense win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.