ScoreProb
Primera División Costa Rica Round 15 2026

Puntarenas FC vs San Carlos

Puntarenas FC Home · Elo 1,491
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
San Carlos Away · Elo 1,438
Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Angel Lito Perez Treacy Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Puntarenas FC win
Puntarenas FC winPick
47.0%
Draw
30.2%
San Carlos win
22.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.8%
No55.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.3%
Under 2.556.7%

How much we know

Puntarenas FC history56 matches
San Carlos history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Puntarenas FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Puntarenas FC are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,491 against 1,438. On rating alone Puntarenas FC would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Puntarenas FC score more

    1.16 goals a game over 56 matches for Puntarenas FC, against 0.80 over 54 for San Carlos.

  • Puntarenas FC concede fewer

    Puntarenas FC concede 1.04 a game, San Carlos 1.37.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Puntarenas FC matches, against 33% for San Carlos. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Puntarenas FC
San Carlos
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.6
ELO
1438.1
56
ELO · Matches
54
1490.6
Current Team ELO
1438.1
1438.1
Current Opponent ELO
1490.6
52.43
Current ELO Difference
-52.43
0.57
Expected score
0.43
56
History Matches
54
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.90
Overperformance
45.63
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.10
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
54
1.29
PPG
0.89
28.6%
Win rate
22.2%
42.9%
Draw rate
22.2%
28.6%
Loss rate
55.6%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
29
1.69
PPG
0.66
46.2%
Win rate
17.2%
30.8%
Draw rate
13.8%
23.1%
Loss rate
69.0%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
62.1%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
26
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
0.80
71.4%
Scoring rate
57.4%
53.6%
BTTS rate
38.9%
1.23
Goals for per game
0.72
73.1%
Scoring rate
51.7%
38.5%
BTTS rate
41.4%
0.80
Goals for per game
0.75
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
56
History Matches
54
1.16
Goals Mean
0.80
1.05
Goals Std
0.91
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
57.4%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
13.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
7.4%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
0.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.37
66.1%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.55
50.0%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
54
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.00
Conceded Std
1.06
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.3%
5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
54
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
1.27
Goal Difference Std
1.51
1.79
Stability score
9.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
54
16
Lead Matches
11
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
54.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.64
13
Trailing Matches
19
23.1%
Non-loss rate
5.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.96
Rest days
73.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
28
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.83
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.67
Portability PPG Range
0.68
66.00
Portability Score
62.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO52.43
PPG0.40
GF0.36
GA-0.33
PPG-0.50
PPG1.04
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate32.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate14.0%
Scored 2+ rate15.6%
Scored 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches2
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-7.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.95
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate20.5%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate17.8%
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.15
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score3.22
Rest days1.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.71
Current Team ELO52.43
Current Opponent ELO-52.43
Current ELO Difference104.9
Expected score0.15
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Puntarenas FC

D
Perez Zeledon1–1Puntarenas FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Puntarenas FC 39% · missed
W
Puntarenas FC3–1Inter San Carlos25 Oct · home
Pick: Inter San Carlos 45% · missed
W
Escorpiones Belén1–2Puntarenas FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Escorpiones Belén 42% · missed
L
CS Cartagines3–1Puntarenas FC14 Oct · away
Pick: CS Cartagines 54% · hit
W
San Carlos1–2Puntarenas FC30 Aug · away
Pick: San Carlos 37% · missed

San Carlos

L
CS Cartagines3–0San Carlos1 Nov · away
Pick: CS Cartagines 59% · hit
W
San Carlos2–1Deportivo Saprissa25 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 57% · missed
D
Sporting San Jose3–3San Carlos20 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting San Jose 55% · missed
L
San Carlos1–2Inter San Carlos14 Oct · home
Pick: Inter San Carlos 48% · hit
L
San Carlos1–2Puntarenas FC30 Aug · home
Pick: San Carlos 37% · missed

About this match

Puntarenas FC and San Carlos meet in Primera División on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Angel Lito Perez Treacy. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Puntarenas FC win 47.0%, draw 30.2%, San Carlos win 22.7%. The pick is Puntarenas FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.3%. Both teams to score: 44.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.