ScoreProb
Primeira Liga Portugal Round 11 2026

Estoril vs Maritimo

Estoril Home · Elo 1,461
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maritimo Away · Elo 1,584
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maritimo win
Estoril win
29.4%
Draw
23.3%
Maritimo winPick
47.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%

How much we know

Estoril history61 matches
Maritimo history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Maritimo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maritimo are rated 123 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,584 against 1,461. On rating alone Maritimo would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.46 goals a game over 61 matches for Estoril, against 1.41 over 61 for Maritimo.

  • Maritimo concede fewer

    Estoril concede 1.62 a game, Maritimo 1.00.

  • Estoril games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Estoril matches, against 39% for Maritimo. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Estoril
Maritimo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.7
ELO
1583.6
61
ELO · Matches
61
1460.7
Current Team ELO
1583.6
1583.6
Current Opponent ELO
1460.7
-122.9
Current ELO Difference
122.9
0.33
Expected score
0.67
61
History Matches
61
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
48.22
Overperformance
55.94
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
61
1.15
PPG
1.82
29.5%
Win rate
52.5%
26.2%
Draw rate
24.6%
44.3%
Loss rate
23.0%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.1%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
41.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.3%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
26
1.24
PPG
1.92
33.3%
Win rate
57.7%
24.2%
Draw rate
19.2%
42.4%
Loss rate
23.1%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
33
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.46
Goals for per game
1.41
72.1%
Scoring rate
83.6%
60.7%
BTTS rate
49.2%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.46
75.8%
Scoring rate
76.9%
63.6%
BTTS rate
42.3%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
61
1.46
Goals Mean
1.41
1.33
Goals Std
0.96
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
41.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.5%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.00
85.2%
Conceding rate
62.3%
1.48
Goals against per game
0.96
81.8%
Conceding rate
61.5%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
61
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.03
Conceded Std
1.12
52.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.0%
23.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.7%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.7%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
61
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.58
2.43
Stability score
7.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
56
13
Lead Matches
19
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.91
24
Trailing Matches
12
37.5%
Non-loss rate
58.3%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
31
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.47
Portability PPG Range
0.93
46.78
Portability Score
56.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-122.9
PPG-0.67
GF0.05
GA0.62
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.68
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.62
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate29.5%
Conceded 3+ rate14.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches0
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-4.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-10.10
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Current Team ELO-122.9
Current Opponent ELO122.9
Current ELO Difference-245.7
Expected score-0.34
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Estoril

L
FC Porto4–0Estoril31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Porto 68% · hit
L
Estoril1–3Moreirense25 Oct · home
Pick: Estoril 51% · missed
L
Benfica2–1Estoril31 Aug · away
Pick: Benfica 77% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Maritimo

L
Maritimo0–2Santa Clara1 Nov · home
Pick: Maritimo 38% · missed
L
Sporting CP2–1Maritimo27 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting CP 65% · hit
L
Vitória SC5–0Maritimo23 Oct · away
Pick: Vitória SC 38% · hit
W
Alcochetense1–2Maritimo18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
L
Arouca2–1Maritimo29 Aug · away
Pick: Arouca 52% · hit

About this match

Estoril and Maritimo meet in Primeira Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Estoril win 29.4%, draw 23.3%, Maritimo win 47.3%. The pick is Maritimo win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.8%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.