ScoreProb
Primeira Liga Portugal Round 11 2026

Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente

Santa Clara Home · Elo 1,548
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
GIL Vicente Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Santa Clara win
Santa Clara winPick
41.7%
Draw
33.1%
GIL Vicente win
25.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.0%
No53.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.7%
Under 2.558.3%

How much we know

Santa Clara history69 matches
GIL Vicente history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Santa Clara are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Santa Clara are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,503. On rating alone Santa Clara would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.12 goals a game over 69 matches for Santa Clara, against 1.18 over 57 for GIL Vicente.

  • Santa Clara concede fewer

    Santa Clara concede 1.01 a game, GIL Vicente 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Santa Clara matches, against 44% for GIL Vicente. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.7
ELO
1502.9
69
ELO · Matches
57
1547.7
Current Team ELO
1502.9
1502.9
Current Opponent ELO
1547.7
44.74
Current ELO Difference
-44.74
0.56
Expected score
0.44
69
History Matches
57
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.00
Overperformance
50.93
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.30
1.80
Goals for per game
1.10
0.50
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
57
1.39
PPG
1.25
36.2%
Win rate
31.6%
30.4%
Draw rate
29.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
38.6%
62.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
37.7%
Over 2.5 rate
43.9%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.3%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
26
1.69
PPG
1.08
50.0%
Win rate
23.1%
19.4%
Draw rate
38.5%
30.6%
Loss rate
38.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
36
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.12
Goals for per game
1.18
68.1%
Scoring rate
68.4%
42.0%
BTTS rate
45.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.12
75.0%
Scoring rate
65.4%
38.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
69
History Matches
57
1.12
Goals Mean
1.18
0.97
Goals Std
1.09
68.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
34.8%
Scored 2+ rate
35.1%
7.2%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.01
Goals against per game
1.14
63.8%
Conceding rate
71.9%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.23
55.6%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
0.0%
69
History Matches
57
1.01
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.07
Conceded Std
0.93
24.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
7.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
57
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.63
0.23
Stability score
0.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
55
16
Lead Matches
16
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.77
14
Trailing Matches
14
28.6%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
35
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
27
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.33
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.33
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
8
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.54
Portability PPG Range
0.72
48.19
Portability Score
58.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO44.74
PPG0.15
GF-0.06
GA-0.13
PPG-0.67
PPG0.62
PPG0.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate0.3%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches12
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.25
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches12
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-0.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate7.1%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.83
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.82
Portability Score-9.93
Rest days1.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO44.74
Current Opponent ELO-44.74
Current ELO Difference89.49
Expected score0.13
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Santa Clara

W
Maritimo0–2Santa Clara1 Nov · away
Pick: Maritimo 38% · missed
L
Santa Clara1–2Benfica26 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica 54% · hit
D
Alverca1–1Santa Clara29 Aug · away
Pick: Santa Clara 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

GIL Vicente

D
GIL Vicente0–0Vitória SC2 Nov · home
Pick: GIL Vicente 49% · missed
L
Benfica4–1GIL Vicente29 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica 62% · hit
L
GIL Vicente0–1FC Porto24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Porto 51% · hit
W
SC Braga1–2GIL Vicente19 Oct · away
Pick: SC Braga 48% · missed
D
Famalicao0–0GIL Vicente30 Aug · away
Pick: Famalicao 44% · missed

About this match

Santa Clara and GIL Vicente meet in Primeira Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Santa Clara win 41.7%, draw 33.1%, GIL Vicente win 25.2%. The pick is Santa Clara win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.7%. Both teams to score: 47.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.