ScoreProb
Primeira Liga Portugal Round 11 2026

Vitória SC vs FC Porto

Vitória SC Home · Elo 1,548
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Porto Away · Elo 1,731
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Porto win
Vitória SC win
23.7%
Draw
23.2%
FC Porto winPick
53.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%

How much we know

Vitória SC history72 matches
FC Porto history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Porto are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Porto are rated 182 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,731 against 1,548. On rating alone FC Porto would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • FC Porto score more

    1.46 goals a game over 72 matches for Vitória SC, against 1.70 over 83 for FC Porto.

  • FC Porto concede fewer

    Vitória SC concede 1.18 a game, FC Porto 0.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Vitória SC matches, against 47% for FC Porto. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vitória SC
FC Porto
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1548.5
ELO
1730.8
72
ELO · Matches
83
1548.5
Current Team ELO
1730.8
1730.8
Current Opponent ELO
1548.5
-182.4
Current ELO Difference
182.4
0.26
Expected score
0.74
72
History Matches
83
0.04
Residual Mean
0.14
53.41
Overperformance
61.32
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
3.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.50
1.90
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
0.50
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
83
1.58
PPG
2.20
47.2%
Win rate
67.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
18.1%
36.1%
Loss rate
14.5%
73.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.3%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
39
1.88
PPG
2.05
57.5%
Win rate
64.1%
15.0%
Draw rate
12.8%
27.5%
Loss rate
23.1%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
47.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
22.5%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
40
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.46
Goals for per game
1.70
70.8%
Scoring rate
89.2%
40.3%
BTTS rate
43.4%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.51
75.0%
Scoring rate
84.6%
35.0%
BTTS rate
41.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
72
History Matches
83
1.46
Goals Mean
1.70
1.57
Goals Std
1.05
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
89.2%
43.1%
Scored 2+ rate
53.0%
13.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.7%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.51
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
0.75
63.9%
Conceding rate
50.6%
0.88
Goals against per game
0.79
55.0%
Conceding rate
53.8%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
0.0%
72
History Matches
83
1.18
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.22
Conceded Std
0.94
31.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.7%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.0%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
0.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
49.4%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
49.4%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
49.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
83
0.93
Result entropy
0.78
2.24
Goal Difference Std
1.46
7.09
Stability score
22.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
83
15
Lead Matches
42
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.94
20
Trailing Matches
14
30.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
56
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.20
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
3.00
33.3%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
8
Competition Season Count
11
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.67
2.00
Portability PPG Range
2.33
42.95
Portability Score
42.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-182.4
PPG-0.62
GF-0.24
GA0.43
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.18
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate18.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate9.6%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std0.52
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.78
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std0.77
Stability score-15.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.81
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-27
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score0.20
Rest days0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Current Team ELO-182.4
Current Opponent ELO182.4
Current ELO Difference-364.8
Expected score-0.48
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vitória SC

D
GIL Vicente0–0Vitória SC2 Nov · away
Pick: GIL Vicente 49% · missed
W
Vitória SC5–0Maritimo23 Oct · home
Pick: Vitória SC 38% · hit
W
Recreativa de Lamelas0–1Vitória SC17 Oct · away
Pick: Vitória SC 35% · hit
L
SC Braga1–0Vitória SC31 Aug · away
Pick: SC Braga 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Porto

W
FC Porto4–0Estoril31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Porto 68% · hit
W
FC Porto1–0Academico Viseu28 Oct · home
Pick: FC Porto 53% · hit
W
GIL Vicente0–1FC Porto24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Porto 51% · hit
L
FC Porto0–1PSV Eindhoven20 Oct · home
Pick: FC Porto 50% · missed
L
Real Betis3–2FC Porto14 Oct · away
Pick: Real Betis 40% · hit

About this match

Vitória SC and FC Porto meet in Primeira Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vitória SC win 23.7%, draw 23.2%, FC Porto win 53.2%. The pick is FC Porto win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.6%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.