ScoreProb
Third League - Northwest Bulgaria Northwest - 12 2026

Etar VT II vs Sevlievo

Etar VT II Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sevlievo Away · Elo 1,455
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Etar VT II win
Etar VT II winPick
39.4%
Draw
31.1%
Sevlievo win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

How much we know

Etar VT II history35 matches
Sevlievo history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Etar VT II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,452 against 1,455. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Etar VT II score more

    1.31 goals a game over 35 matches for Etar VT II, against 1.04 over 52 for Sevlievo.

  • Defences are close

    Etar VT II concede 1.66 a game, Sevlievo 1.54.

  • Etar VT II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Etar VT II matches, against 44% for Sevlievo. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Etar VT II
Sevlievo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.7
ELO
1454.6
35
ELO · Matches
52
1451.7
Current Team ELO
1454.6
1454.6
Current Opponent ELO
1451.7
-2.95
Current ELO Difference
2.95
0.50
Expected score
0.50
35
History Matches
52
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.79
Overperformance
46.89
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
3.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
3.30
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.30
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
52
1.14
PPG
1.17
31.4%
Win rate
32.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
19.2%
48.6%
Loss rate
48.1%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.3%
54.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.2%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
26
1.56
PPG
1.12
44.4%
Win rate
30.8%
22.2%
Draw rate
19.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
18
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.04
74.3%
Scoring rate
61.5%
51.4%
BTTS rate
36.5%
1.78
Goals for per game
0.92
83.3%
Scoring rate
65.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
38.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
35
History Matches
52
1.31
Goals Mean
1.04
1.12
Goals Std
1.19
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
61.5%
37.1%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
9.6%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.54
74.3%
Conceding rate
67.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.88
66.7%
Conceding rate
69.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
35
History Matches
52
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.24
Conceded Std
1.67
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.3%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
52
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
1.71
Goal Difference Std
2.27
5.66
Stability score
5.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
11
Eligible Matches
43
4
Lead Matches
9
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.93
3
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
11
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
21
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
13
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.10
Portability PPG Range
0.90
91.03
Portability Score
55.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-2.95
PPG-0.03
GF0.28
GA0.12
PPG0.00
PPG0.44
PPG-1.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate12.7%
Scored 2+ rate12.1%
Scored 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.57
Stability score-0.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.24
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate14.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.80
Portability Score35.16
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO-2.95
Current Opponent ELO2.95
Current ELO Difference-5.89
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Etar VT II

D
Chavdar Troyan2–2Etar VT II31 Oct · away
Pick: Chavdar Troyan 38% · missed
L
Pavlikeni2–0Etar VT II17 Oct · away
Pick: Pavlikeni 43% · hit
L
Akademik Svishtov3–2Etar VT II30 Aug · away
Pick: Akademik Svishtov 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sevlievo

W
Sevlievo6–0Partizan31 Oct · home
Pick: Sevlievo 42% · hit
D
Sevlievo1–1Akademik Svishtov17 Oct · home
Pick: Sevlievo 41% · missed
D
Sevlievo2–2Spartak Pleven II29 Aug · home
Pick: Sevlievo 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Etar VT II and Sevlievo meet in Third League - Northwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Etar VT II win 39.4%, draw 31.1%, Sevlievo win 29.5%. The pick is Etar VT II win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.