ScoreProb
Third League - Northwest Bulgaria Northwest - 12 2026

Spartak Pleven II vs Pavlikeni

Spartak Pleven II Home · Elo 1,498
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pavlikeni Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spartak Pleven II win
Spartak Pleven II winPick
38.6%
Draw
23.7%
Pavlikeni win
37.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.6%
No55.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.5%
Under 2.556.5%

How much we know

Spartak Pleven II history1 match
Pavlikeni history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Spartak Pleven II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,498 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Pavlikeni score more

    1.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Spartak Pleven II, against 1.22 over 32 for Pavlikeni.

  • Spartak Pleven II concede fewer

    Spartak Pleven II concede 1.00 a game, Pavlikeni 1.50.

  • Pavlikeni games more often go over 2.5 goals

    0% of Spartak Pleven II matches, against 50% for Pavlikeni. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Spartak Pleven II
Pavlikeni@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.2
ELO
1500.3
1
ELO · Matches
32
1498.2
Current Team ELO
1500.3
1500.3
Current Opponent ELO
1498.2
-2.16
Current ELO Difference
2.16
0.50
Expected score
0.50
1
History Matches
32
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.00
Overperformance
49.66
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
32
1.00
PPG
1.44
0.0%
Win rate
43.8%
100.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
0.0%
Loss rate
43.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
17
1.00
PPG
1.12
0.0%
Win rate
35.3%
100.0%
Draw rate
5.9%
0.0%
Loss rate
58.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.76
1
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.22
100.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
100.0%
BTTS rate
31.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
64.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
41.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1
History Matches
32
1.00
Goals Mean
1.22
—
Goals Std
1.39
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.1%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.9%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
59.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.24
100.0%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
1
History Matches
32
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.50
—
Conceded Std
1.85
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
32
0.00
Result entropy
0.90
—
Goal Difference Std
2.54
100.0
Stability score
10.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
0
Eligible Matches
7
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
1
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.14
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.14
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
20
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
0
Long Rest History Matches
10
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.09
—
Portability PPG Range
0.18
—
Portability Score
84.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-2.16
PPG-0.44
GF-0.22
GA-0.50
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.12
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-0.22
Scored 1+ rate37.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean-0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Conceded 2+ rate-0.44
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-1.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.90
Stability score89.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.61
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches-1
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Long Rest History Matches-10
Current Team ELO-2.16
Current Opponent ELO2.16
Current ELO Difference-4.32
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-31
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Spartak Pleven II

D
Spartak Pleven II5–5Yantra Polski Trambesh17 Oct · home
Pick: Yantra Polski Trambesh 43% · missed
W
Spartak Pleven II1–0Partizan4 Oct · home
Pick: Partizan 36% · missed
D
Sevlievo2–2Spartak Pleven II29 Aug · away
Pick: Sevlievo 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pavlikeni

D
Pavlikeni2–2Lokomotiv Mezdra31 Oct · home
Pick: Pavlikeni 43% · missed
W
Yantra Polski Trambesh0–2Pavlikeni23 Oct · away
Pick: Yantra Polski Trambesh 49% · missed
W
Pavlikeni2–0Etar VT II17 Oct · home
Pick: Pavlikeni 43% · hit
L
Chavdar Troyan1–0Pavlikeni29 Aug · away
Pick: Chavdar Troyan 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Spartak Pleven II and Pavlikeni meet in Third League - Northwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Spartak Pleven II win 38.6%, draw 23.7%, Pavlikeni win 37.6%. The pick is Spartak Pleven II win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.5%. Both teams to score: 44.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.