Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Chavdar Troyan
Match result probability Model pick: Yantra Polski Trambesh win
Yantra Polski Trambesh winPick
54.1%
Draw
20.8%
Chavdar Troyan win
25.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.5%
No49.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%
How much we know
Yantra Polski Trambesh history34 matches
Chavdar Troyan history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Yantra Polski Trambesh
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Yantra Polski Trambesh are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Chavdar Troyan are rated 32 Elo points higher
Elo 1,502 against 1,470. On rating alone Chavdar Troyan would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Yantra Polski Trambesh score far more
1.74 goals a game over 34 matches for Yantra Polski Trambesh, against 1.00 over 1 for Chavdar Troyan.
-
Chavdar Troyan concede fewer
Yantra Polski Trambesh concede 1.85 a game, Chavdar Troyan 1.00.
-
Yantra Polski Trambesh games more often go over 2.5 goals
53% of Yantra Polski Trambesh matches, against 0% for Chavdar Troyan. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chavdar Troyan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1469.5
ELO
1501.8
34
ELO · Matches
1
1469.5
Current Team ELO
1501.8
1501.8
Current Opponent ELO
1469.5
-32.33
Current ELO Difference
32.33
0.45
Expected score
0.55
34
History Matches
1
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
47.52
Overperformance
50.00
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
1
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
2.06
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
34
Matches
1
1.24
PPG
1.00
32.4%
Win rate
0.0%
26.5%
Draw rate
100.0%
41.2%
Loss rate
0.0%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
18
Matches
1
1.39
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
38.9%
Draw rate
100.0%
27.8%
Loss rate
0.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
18
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.00
79.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
58.8%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.00
77.8%
Scoring rate
100.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
1
1.74
Goals Mean
1.00
1.44
Goals Std
—
79.4%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.85
Goals against per game
1.00
73.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
1
1.85
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.73
Conceded Std
—
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
32.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
34
History Matches
1
0.99
Result entropy
0.00
2.17
Goal Difference Std
—
1.49
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
7
Eligible Matches
0
3
Lead Matches
0
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.67
Lead Points Retention
—
1
Trailing Matches
0
0.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
10
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.05
Portability PPG Std
—
0.11
Portability PPG Range
—
90.32
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
34
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-32.33
PPG0.24
GF0.74
GA0.85
PPG2.00
PPG0.39
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate26.5%
Failed-to-score rate20.6%
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate22.2%
History Matches33
Goals Mean0.74
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate50.0%
Scored 3+ rate26.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
History Matches33
Conceded Mean0.85
Clean-sheet rate26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate44.1%
Conceded 3+ rate32.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
History Matches33
Result entropy0.99
Stability score-98.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.86
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches3
Trailing Matches1
Halftime Coverage Matches7
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches21
Long Rest History Matches10
Current Team ELO-32.33
Current Opponent ELO32.33
Current ELO Difference-64.66
Expected score-0.09
History Matches33
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Yantra Polski Trambesh
L
OFK Levski3–2Yantra Polski Trambesh31 Oct · away
Pick: Yantra Polski Trambesh 42% · missed L
Yantra Polski Trambesh0–2Pavlikeni23 Oct · home
Pick: Yantra Polski Trambesh 49% · missed D
Spartak Pleven II5–5Yantra Polski Trambesh17 Oct · away
Pick: Yantra Polski Trambesh 43% · missed D
Kom Berkovitsa2–2Yantra Polski Trambesh29 Aug · away
Pick: Kom Berkovitsa 46% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Chavdar Troyan
D
Chavdar Troyan2–2Etar VT II31 Oct · home
Pick: Chavdar Troyan 38% · missed W
Partizan1–2Chavdar Troyan23 Oct · away
Pick: Partizan 48% · missed L
Chavdar Troyan0–4Marek4 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed W
Chavdar Troyan1–0Pavlikeni29 Aug · home
Pick: Chavdar Troyan 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Yantra Polski Trambesh and Chavdar Troyan meet in Third League - Northwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Yantra Polski Trambesh win 54.1%, draw 20.8%, Chavdar Troyan win 25.1%. The pick is Yantra Polski Trambesh win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.0%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.