ScoreProb
Premier Division Gibraltar Round 10 2026

Europa vs Hound Dogs

Europa Home · Elo 1,545
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hound Dogs Away · Elo 1,383
Victoria Stadium, Gibraltar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Europa win
Europa winPick
75.1%
Draw
16.2%
Hound Dogs win
8.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.0%
No54.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.3%
Under 2.532.7%

How much we know

Europa history39 matches
Hound Dogs history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (75.1%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Europa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Europa are rated 162 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,383. On rating alone Europa would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Europa score far more

    1.67 goals a game over 39 matches for Europa, against 0.48 over 25 for Hound Dogs.

  • Europa concede fewer

    Europa concede 1.21 a game, Hound Dogs 3.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Europa matches, against 56% for Hound Dogs. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Europa
Hound Dogs@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.6
ELO
1382.8
39
ELO · Matches
25
1544.6
Current Team ELO
1382.8
1382.8
Current Opponent ELO
1544.6
161.8
Current ELO Difference
-161.8
0.72
Expected score
0.28
39
History Matches
25
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.23
53.50
Overperformance
37.39
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
2.20
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.10
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
2.01
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.09
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
25
1.72
PPG
0.48
53.8%
Win rate
8.0%
10.3%
Draw rate
24.0%
35.9%
Loss rate
68.0%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
44.0%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
12
1.89
PPG
0.50
57.9%
Win rate
8.3%
15.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
26.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.85
19
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
0.48
69.2%
Scoring rate
40.0%
38.5%
BTTS rate
32.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.58
68.4%
Scoring rate
41.7%
42.1%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
25
1.67
Goals Mean
0.48
1.56
Goals Std
0.70
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
40.0%
48.7%
Scored 2+ rate
4.0%
28.2%
Scored 3+ rate
4.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
3.32
61.5%
Conceding rate
88.0%
1.26
Goals against per game
3.92
63.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
25
1.21
Conceded Mean
3.32
1.40
Conceded Std
3.43
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.0%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
52.0%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
3.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
58.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
58.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
25
0.85
Result entropy
0.73
2.42
Goal Difference Std
3.75
14.92
Stability score
26.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
25
12
Lead Matches
2
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.67
9
Trailing Matches
16
22.2%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.20
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.88
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
15
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.17
21
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.06
Portability PPG Std
—
0.13
Portability PPG Range
—
88.89
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO161.8
PPG1.24
GF1.19
GA-2.11
PPG0.00
PPG1.39
PPG0.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate26.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate20.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches14
Goals Mean1.19
Goals Std0.86
Scored 1+ rate29.2%
Scored 2+ rate44.7%
Scored 3+ rate24.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.52
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-2.11
Conceded Std-2.03
Clean-sheet rate26.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.42
Venue Conceded Mean-2.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches14
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-1.33
Stability score-11.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate41.7%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate16.0%
Trailing Win Rate22.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.80
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.57
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.93
Current Team ELO161.8
Current Opponent ELO-161.8
Current ELO Difference323.5
Expected score0.43
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.28
Overperformance16.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Europa

L
Lions Gibraltar1–0Europa31 Oct · away
Pick: Lions Gibraltar 46% · hit
W
Europa2–0Lynx23 Oct · home
Pick: Europa 54% · hit
W
Europa Point0–2Europa30 Aug · away
Pick: Europa 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hound Dogs

L
Hound Dogs0–5Lincoln Red Imps FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 76% · hit
L
Mons Calpe4–0Hound Dogs24 Oct · away
Pick: Mons Calpe 64% · hit
L
Hound Dogs0–8St Joseph S Fc18 Oct · home
Pick: St Joseph S Fc 75% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Europa and Hound Dogs meet in Premier Division on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Victoria Stadium, Gibraltar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Europa win 75.1%, draw 16.2%, Hound Dogs win 8.7%. The pick is Europa win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.3%. Both teams to score: 46.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.