ScoreProb
Eredivisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles

Excelsior Home · Elo 1,561
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
GO Ahead Eagles Away · Elo 1,532
Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Excelsior win
Excelsior winPick
43.5%
Draw
22.0%
GO Ahead Eagles win
34.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%

How much we know

Excelsior history60 matches
GO Ahead Eagles history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Excelsior are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Excelsior are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,532. On rating alone Excelsior would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.72 goals a game over 60 matches for Excelsior, against 1.61 over 75 for GO Ahead Eagles.

  • Excelsior concede fewer

    Excelsior concede 1.40 a game, GO Ahead Eagles 1.60.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Excelsior matches, against 65% for GO Ahead Eagles. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Excelsior
GO Ahead Eagles
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1561.4
ELO
1531.7
60
ELO · Matches
75
1561.4
Current Team ELO
1531.7
1531.7
Current Opponent ELO
1561.4
29.73
Current ELO Difference
-29.73
0.54
Expected score
0.46
60
History Matches
75
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.37
Overperformance
51.84
0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
3.60
Goals for per game
2.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.90
3.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
75
1.55
PPG
1.29
45.0%
Win rate
32.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
35.0%
Loss rate
34.7%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.3%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
37
1.46
PPG
0.84
42.9%
Win rate
16.2%
17.9%
Draw rate
35.1%
39.3%
Loss rate
48.6%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.08
28
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.61
86.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
65.0%
BTTS rate
64.0%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.24
85.7%
Scoring rate
78.4%
53.6%
BTTS rate
70.3%
2.50
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
75
1.72
Goals Mean
1.61
1.31
Goals Std
1.28
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
46.7%
Scored 2+ rate
49.3%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
18.7%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
75.0%
Conceding rate
78.7%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.78
67.9%
Conceding rate
86.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
75
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.16
Conceded Std
1.22
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.0%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.7%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
75
0.95
Result entropy
1.00
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.87
4.55
Stability score
0.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
75
24
Lead Matches
20
79.2%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.77
13
Trailing Matches
24
30.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.08
Rest days
76.41
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
9
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.78
27
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
30
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
1.50
PPG
2.33
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.33
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
6
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.64
1.88
Portability PPG Range
1.67
42.32
Portability Score
43.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO29.73
PPG0.26
GF0.10
GA-0.20
PPG-0.83
PPG0.63
PPG-0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate18.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-15
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate6.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score4.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.57
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate9.2%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.17
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-1.42
Rest days7.68
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match1.22
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO29.73
Current Opponent ELO-29.73
Current ELO Difference59.46
Expected score0.09
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Excelsior

L
Excelsior0–9Twente1 Nov · home
Pick: Excelsior 47% · missed
W
MVV0–3Excelsior28 Oct · away
Pick: MVV 46% · missed
L
Fortuna Sittard1–0Excelsior25 Oct · away
Pick: Excelsior 49% · missed
L
Heerenveen4–0Excelsior16 Oct · away
Pick: Excelsior 43% · missed
W
Excelsior2–1Sparta Rotterdam29 Aug · home
Pick: Excelsior 54% · hit

GO Ahead Eagles

L
Cambuur4–0GO Ahead Eagles31 Oct · away
Pick: GO Ahead Eagles 48% · missed
W
Koninklijke HFC0–5GO Ahead Eagles27 Oct · away
Pick: GO Ahead Eagles 50% · hit
W
GO Ahead Eagles3–2Telstar23 Oct · home
Pick: GO Ahead Eagles 57% · hit
L
PEC Zwolle4–1GO Ahead Eagles18 Oct · away
Pick: GO Ahead Eagles 49% · missed
L
AZ Alkmaar5–2GO Ahead Eagles29 Aug · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 63% · hit

About this match

Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles meet in Eredivisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Excelsior win 43.5%, draw 22.0%, GO Ahead Eagles win 34.5%. The pick is Excelsior win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.5%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.