ScoreProb
Liga I Romania Round 15 2026

Farul Constanta vs Rapid

Farul Constanta Home · Elo 1,480
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rapid Away · Elo 1,560
Central Stadium Hagi Academy, Ovidiu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rapid win
Farul Constanta win
34.9%
Draw
28.5%
Rapid winPick
36.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%

How much we know

Farul Constanta history77 matches
Rapid history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Rapid are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rapid are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,560 against 1,480. On rating alone Rapid would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.25 goals a game over 77 matches for Farul Constanta, against 1.35 over 74 for Rapid.

  • Defences are close

    Farul Constanta concede 1.21 a game, Rapid 1.11.

  • Rapid games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Farul Constanta matches, against 51% for Rapid. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Farul Constanta
Rapid
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1480.1
ELO
1559.9
77
ELO · Matches
74
1480.1
Current Team ELO
1559.9
1559.9
Current Opponent ELO
1480.1
-79.77
Current ELO Difference
79.77
0.39
Expected score
0.61
77
History Matches
74
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
48.98
Overperformance
52.58
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
74
1.21
PPG
1.47
29.9%
Win rate
39.2%
31.2%
Draw rate
29.7%
39.0%
Loss rate
31.1%
70.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
40
1.45
PPG
1.40
36.8%
Win rate
35.0%
34.2%
Draw rate
35.0%
28.9%
Loss rate
30.0%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.5%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
38
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.35
74.0%
Scoring rate
77.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.35
78.9%
Scoring rate
75.0%
60.5%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.17
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
83.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
77
History Matches
74
1.25
Goals Mean
1.35
1.07
Goals Std
1.07
74.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.0%
32.5%
Scored 2+ rate
39.2%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
1.11
75.3%
Conceding rate
70.3%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.08
71.1%
Conceding rate
67.5%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.50
83.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
77
History Matches
74
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.01
Conceded Std
0.94
29.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.8%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
26.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
74
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.45
0.65
Stability score
0.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
74
20
Lead Matches
20
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.88
28
Trailing Matches
18
32.1%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.10
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
43
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.50
PPG
1.83
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
16.7%
Loss rate
16.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
16.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.83
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.21
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.60
55.94
Portability Score
69.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-79.77
PPG-0.27
GF-0.10
GA0.10
PPG-0.33
PPG0.05
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-0.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate4.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-14.04
Rest days-1.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Current Team ELO-79.77
Current Opponent ELO79.77
Current ELO Difference-159.5
Expected score-0.23
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Farul Constanta

W
FC Voluntari1–2Farul Constanta2 Nov · away
Pick: Farul Constanta 38% · hit
D
Farul Constanta0–0FC Botosani30 Aug · home
Pick: Farul Constanta 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rapid

W
Rapid2–0Csikszereda30 Oct · home
Pick: Rapid 60% · hit
D
Corvinul Hunedoara0–0Rapid27 Oct · away
Pick: Corvinul Hunedoara 41% · missed
L
FCSB4–1Rapid24 Oct · away
Pick: FCSB 50% · hit
W
Universitatea Cluj3–4Rapid12 Oct · away
Pick: Universitatea Cluj 45% · missed
D
Rapid1–1Universitatea Craiova31 Aug · home
Pick: Universitatea Craiova 38% · missed

About this match

Farul Constanta and Rapid meet in Liga I on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Central Stadium Hagi Academy, Ovidiu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Farul Constanta win 34.9%, draw 28.5%, Rapid win 36.6%. The pick is Rapid win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.0%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.