FC 08 Homburg vs FSV Frankfurt
Match result probability Model pick: FC 08 Homburg win
FC 08 Homburg winPick
51.6%
Draw
21.3%
FSV Frankfurt win
27.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes63.7%
No36.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.571.0%
Under 2.529.0%
How much we know
FC 08 Homburg history76 matches
FSV Frankfurt history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours FC 08 Homburg
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why FC 08 Homburg are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
FC 08 Homburg are rated 43 Elo points higher
Elo 1,621 against 1,579. On rating alone FC 08 Homburg would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
2.26 goals a game over 76 matches for FC 08 Homburg, against 2.10 over 70 for FSV Frankfurt.
-
FC 08 Homburg concede fewer
FC 08 Homburg concede 1.33 a game, FSV Frankfurt 1.66.
-
FSV Frankfurt games more often go over 2.5 goals
66% of FC 08 Homburg matches, against 74% for FSV Frankfurt. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FSV Frankfurt@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1621.2
ELO
1578.6
76
ELO · Matches
70
1621.2
Current Team ELO
1578.6
1578.6
Current Opponent ELO
1621.2
42.61
Current ELO Difference
-42.61
0.56
Expected score
0.44
76
History Matches
70
0.07
Residual Mean
0.06
55.22
Overperformance
54.76
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.90
1.70
Goals for per game
2.80
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.09
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.23
Overall performance9 signals 90
76
Matches
70
1.79
PPG
1.57
52.6%
Win rate
45.7%
21.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
26.3%
Loss rate
34.3%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
65.8%
Over 2.5 rate
74.3%
46.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals 100
33
Matches
33
2.06
PPG
1.73
63.6%
Win rate
51.5%
15.2%
Draw rate
18.2%
21.2%
Loss rate
30.3%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
75.8%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
33
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.26
Goals for per game
2.10
84.2%
Scoring rate
90.0%
63.2%
BTTS rate
65.7%
2.42
Goals for per game
2.21
87.9%
Scoring rate
93.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
69.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
76
History Matches
70
2.26
Goals Mean
2.10
1.73
Goals Std
1.56
84.2%
Scored 1+ rate
90.0%
60.5%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
39.5%
Scored 3+ rate
31.4%
2.42
Venue Goals Mean
2.21
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.66
76.3%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.64
78.8%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
76
History Matches
70
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.16
Conceded Std
1.49
34.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.1%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
6.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
6.1%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
76
History Matches
70
0.93
Result entropy
0.95
2.24
Goal Difference Std
2.33
7.41
Stability score
4.72
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
74
Eligible Matches
67
32
Lead Matches
26
78.1%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.87
24
Trailing Matches
22
41.7%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
20.8%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.25
Rest days
83.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
54
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.51
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.33
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.14
Portability PPG Range
0.90
55.82
Portability Score
59.68
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
76
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO42.61
PPG0.22
GF0.16
GA-0.33
PPG0.67
PPG0.33
PPG1.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate5.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.82
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score2.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.13
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate5.3%
Trailing Win Rate2.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-3.86
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO42.61
Current Opponent ELO-42.61
Current ELO Difference85.22
Expected score0.12
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
FC 08 Homburg
D
FC 08 Homburg0–0Eintracht Trier30 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 53% · missed D
SSV Ulm 18461–1FC 08 Homburg25 Oct · away
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 50% · missed W
FC 08 Homburg2–1Freiburg II18 Oct · home
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 45% · hit L
FC 08 Homburg0–1Stuttgarter Kickers29 Aug · home
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
FSV Frankfurt
D
TSV Steinbach2–2FSV Frankfurt30 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 41% · missed L
FSV Frankfurt1–2Eintracht Frankfurt II24 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 51% · missed L
Eintracht Trier3–2FSV Frankfurt18 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 42% · missed D
Kaiserslautern II2–2FSV Frankfurt14 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Frankfurt 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
FC 08 Homburg and FSV Frankfurt meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: FC 08 Homburg win 51.6%, draw 21.3%, FSV Frankfurt win 27.2%. The pick is FC 08 Homburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.0%. Both teams to score: 63.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.