ScoreProb
Superliga Denmark Round 14 2026

FC Copenhagen vs Brondby

FC Copenhagen Home · Elo 1,662
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brondby Away · Elo 1,560
Parken Stadium, Copenhagen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Copenhagen win
FC Copenhagen winPick
44.2%
Draw
26.3%
Brondby win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.0%
No41.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%

How much we know

FC Copenhagen history96 matches
Brondby history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Copenhagen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Copenhagen are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,662 against 1,560. On rating alone FC Copenhagen would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • FC Copenhagen score more

    2.00 goals a game over 96 matches for FC Copenhagen, against 1.72 over 74 for Brondby.

  • Defences are close

    FC Copenhagen concede 1.33 a game, Brondby 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of FC Copenhagen matches, against 58% for Brondby. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Copenhagen
Brondby
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1661.5
ELO
1560.1
96
ELO · Matches
74
1661.5
Current Team ELO
1560.1
1560.1
Current Opponent ELO
1661.5
101.4
Current ELO Difference
-101.4
0.64
Expected score
0.36
96
History Matches
74
0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
56.22
Overperformance
54.24
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
2.10
2.80
Goals for per game
2.70
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.05
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
96
Matches
74
1.79
PPG
1.46
53.1%
Win rate
39.2%
19.8%
Draw rate
28.4%
27.1%
Loss rate
32.4%
85.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
65.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.5%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
32
1.95
PPG
1.41
59.1%
Win rate
37.5%
18.2%
Draw rate
28.1%
22.7%
Loss rate
34.4%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
44
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.72
85.4%
Scoring rate
77.0%
59.4%
BTTS rate
58.1%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.31
93.2%
Scoring rate
68.8%
61.4%
BTTS rate
46.9%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
96
History Matches
74
2.00
Goals Mean
1.72
1.45
Goals Std
1.55
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
77.0%
57.3%
Scored 2+ rate
48.6%
35.4%
Scored 3+ rate
24.3%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.36
69.8%
Conceding rate
71.6%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.19
65.9%
Conceding rate
65.6%
1.75
Goals against per game
0.80
75.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
96
History Matches
74
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.21
Conceded Std
1.16
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
96
History Matches
74
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.93
8.03
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
95
Eligible Matches
74
43
Lead Matches
24
81.4%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.90
22
Trailing Matches
17
45.5%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
95
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
75.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
11
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.64
62
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
15
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
2.25
PPG
2.60
75.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
4
Current Competition Matches
5
2.25
Current Competition PPG
2.60
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
10
Competition Season Count
9
10
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.49
2.25
Portability PPG Range
1.31
42.71
Portability Score
50.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
96
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO101.4
PPG0.33
GF0.28
GA-0.03
PPG-0.35
PPG0.55
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches22
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate8.4%
Scored 2+ rate8.6%
Scored 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.80
History Matches22
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches22
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score7.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate16.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.45
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.94
Portability Score-7.77
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.36
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.46
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO101.4
Current Opponent ELO-101.4
Current ELO Difference202.9
Expected score0.28
History Matches22
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Copenhagen

W
Sonderjyske0–2FC Copenhagen2 Nov · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 68% · hit
W
Aarhus Fremad0–3FC Copenhagen29 Oct · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 51% · hit
D
FC Copenhagen1–1Odense26 Oct · home
Pick: FC Copenhagen 59% · missed
D
FK Crvena Zvezda2–2FC Copenhagen22 Oct · away
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 47% · missed
D
FC Copenhagen1–1Aarhus18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Copenhagen 62% · missed

Brondby

W
Brondby2–0Aarhus1 Nov · home
Pick: Brondby 55% · hit
W
AB Copenhagen1–2Brondby27 Oct · away
Pick: AB Copenhagen 39% · missed
W
Randers FC1–3Brondby23 Oct · away
Pick: Brondby 52% · hit
L
Odense2–1Brondby18 Oct · away
Pick: Brondby 50% · missed
L
FC Nordsjaelland3–1Brondby30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Nordsjaelland 36% · hit

About this match

FC Copenhagen and Brondby meet in Superliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Parken Stadium, Copenhagen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Copenhagen win 44.2%, draw 26.3%, Brondby win 29.6%. The pick is FC Copenhagen win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.7%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.