ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

FC Copenhagen vs Saburtalo

FC Copenhagen Home · Elo 1,662
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Saburtalo Away · Elo 1,613
Parken Stadium, Copenhagen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Copenhagen win
FC Copenhagen winPick
47.9%
Draw
23.3%
Saburtalo win
28.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%

How much we know

FC Copenhagen history96 matches
Saburtalo history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Copenhagen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Copenhagen are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,662 against 1,613. On rating alone FC Copenhagen would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • FC Copenhagen score more

    2.00 goals a game over 96 matches for FC Copenhagen, against 1.48 over 85 for Saburtalo.

  • Saburtalo concede fewer

    FC Copenhagen concede 1.33 a game, Saburtalo 1.00.

  • FC Copenhagen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of FC Copenhagen matches, against 47% for Saburtalo. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Copenhagen
Saburtalo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1661.5
ELO
1613.1
96
ELO · Matches
85
1661.5
Current Team ELO
1613.1
1613.1
Current Opponent ELO
1661.5
48.48
Current ELO Difference
-48.48
0.57
Expected score
0.43
96
History Matches
85
0.08
Residual Mean
0.07
56.22
Overperformance
55.71
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
3.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.40
2.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
96
Matches
85
1.79
PPG
1.76
53.1%
Win rate
50.6%
19.8%
Draw rate
24.7%
27.1%
Loss rate
24.7%
85.4%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
65.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
40
1.95
PPG
1.78
59.1%
Win rate
52.5%
18.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
22.7%
Loss rate
27.5%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.5%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
44
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.48
85.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
59.4%
BTTS rate
50.6%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.65
93.2%
Scoring rate
80.0%
61.4%
BTTS rate
47.5%
3.25
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
75.0%
BTTS rate
—
96
History Matches
85
2.00
Goals Mean
1.48
1.45
Goals Std
1.19
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
57.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
35.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.3%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
69.8%
Conceding rate
61.2%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.03
65.9%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
—
75.0%
Conceding rate
—
96
History Matches
85
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.21
Conceded Std
1.02
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.1%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
96
History Matches
85
0.92
Result entropy
0.94
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.55
8.03
Stability score
5.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
95
Eligible Matches
82
43
Lead Matches
31
81.4%
Lead Win Rate
83.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
11
45.5%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
95
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.17
Rest days
82.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
62
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
15
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
0
2.50
PPG
—
75.0%
Win rate
—
25.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
4
Current Competition Matches
0
2.50
Current Competition PPG
—
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
10
Competition Season Count
12
10
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.57
2.25
Portability PPG Range
1.58
42.71
Portability Score
46.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
96
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO48.48
PPG0.03
GF0.52
GA0.33
PPG0.18
PPG1.20
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.52
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate13.8%
Scored 3+ rate20.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score2.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.15
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate9.1%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches4
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-4.18
Rest days-7.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches14
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO48.48
Current Opponent ELO-48.48
Current ELO Difference96.97
Expected score0.14
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Copenhagen

W
Sonderjyske0–2FC Copenhagen2 Nov · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 68% · hit
W
Aarhus Fremad0–3FC Copenhagen29 Oct · away
Pick: FC Copenhagen 51% · hit
D
FC Copenhagen1–1Odense26 Oct · home
Pick: FC Copenhagen 59% · missed
D
FK Crvena Zvezda2–2FC Copenhagen22 Oct · away
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 47% · missed
D
FC Copenhagen1–1Aarhus18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Copenhagen 62% · missed

Saburtalo

D
Dinamo Tbilisi0–0Saburtalo31 Oct · away
Pick: Saburtalo 36% · missed
W
Saburtalo3–2Torpedo Kutaisi26 Oct · home
Pick: Saburtalo 47% · hit
D
Saburtalo1–1Mjallby AIF22 Oct · home
Pick: Saburtalo 47% · missed
W
Dila0–2Saburtalo19 Oct · away
Pick: Saburtalo 35% · hit
L
St. Truiden2–0Saburtalo15 Oct · away
Pick: Saburtalo 42% · missed

About this match

FC Copenhagen and Saburtalo meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Parken Stadium, Copenhagen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: FC Copenhagen win 47.9%, draw 23.3%, Saburtalo win 28.8%. The pick is FC Copenhagen win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.