ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax

FC Eindhoven Home · Elo 1,458
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jong Ajax Away · Elo 1,374
Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Eindhoven win
FC Eindhoven winPick
56.4%
Draw
21.1%
Jong Ajax win
22.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.6%
No41.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.8%
Under 2.535.2%

How much we know

FC Eindhoven history70 matches
Jong Ajax history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Eindhoven are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Eindhoven are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,458 against 1,374. On rating alone FC Eindhoven would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • FC Eindhoven score more

    1.39 goals a game over 70 matches for FC Eindhoven, against 1.18 over 56 for Jong Ajax.

  • Defences are close

    FC Eindhoven concede 1.74 a game, Jong Ajax 1.89.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of FC Eindhoven matches, against 55% for Jong Ajax. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Eindhoven
Jong Ajax
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1458.0
ELO
1374.4
70
ELO · Matches
56
1458.0
Current Team ELO
1374.4
1374.4
Current Opponent ELO
1458.0
83.59
Current ELO Difference
-83.59
0.62
Expected score
0.38
70
History Matches
56
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.11
47.01
Overperformance
41.90
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.90
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.79
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
56
1.23
PPG
0.84
34.3%
Win rate
21.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
19.6%
45.7%
Loss rate
58.9%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
61.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.4%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
28
1.45
PPG
0.64
41.9%
Win rate
17.9%
19.4%
Draw rate
10.7%
38.7%
Loss rate
71.4%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
54.8%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
31
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.18
74.3%
Scoring rate
66.1%
51.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.00
80.6%
Scoring rate
67.9%
51.6%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
56
1.39
Goals Mean
1.18
1.15
Goals Std
1.18
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
66.1%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.74
Goals against per game
1.89
74.3%
Conceding rate
83.9%
1.65
Goals against per game
2.07
67.7%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.67
Goals against per game
3.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
56
1.74
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.46
Conceded Std
1.38
54.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.7%
27.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.88
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.58
4.72
Stability score
12.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
56
19
Lead Matches
8
52.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
0.83
22
Trailing Matches
24
18.2%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.13
43
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
6
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.92
78.73
Portability Score
54.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO83.59
PPG0.39
GF0.21
GA-0.15
PPG1.00
PPG0.81
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate8.2%
Scored 2+ rate10.7%
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches14
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score-7.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate1.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.52
Portability Score24.38
Rest days0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.16
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.95
Current Team ELO83.59
Current Opponent ELO-83.59
Current ELO Difference167.2
Expected score0.24
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Eindhoven

L
Helmond Sport3–2FC Eindhoven30 Oct · away
Pick: Helmond Sport 47% · hit
W
FC Eindhoven5–3FC Volendam27 Oct · home
Pick: FC Volendam 40% · missed
L
FC Eindhoven1–2Jong PSV U2123 Oct · home
Pick: FC Eindhoven 39% · missed
L
FC Eindhoven0–1Vitesse16 Oct · home
Pick: Vitesse 40% · hit
L
FC Eindhoven1–3Heracles30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Eindhoven 44% · missed

Jong Ajax

D
Jong Ajax1–1Vitesse2 Nov · home
Pick: Vitesse 52% · missed
D
FC OSS3–3Jong Ajax23 Oct · away
Pick: FC OSS 50% · missed
W
Jong Ajax2–1De Graafschap19 Oct · home
Pick: De Graafschap 41% · missed
D
Jong PSV U211–1Jong Ajax31 Aug · away
Pick: Jong PSV U21 65% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax meet in Eerste Divisie on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Jan Louwers Stadion, Eindhoven. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: FC Eindhoven win 56.4%, draw 21.1%, Jong Ajax win 22.5%. The pick is FC Eindhoven win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.8%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.