ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

Jong AZ Home · Elo 1,492
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Almere City FC Away · Elo 1,535
AFAS Trainingscomplex, Alkmaar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Almere City FC win
Jong AZ win
29.3%
Draw
22.5%
Almere City FC winPick
48.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.1%
No33.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.9%
Under 2.531.1%

How much we know

Jong AZ history64 matches
Almere City FC history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Almere City FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Almere City FC are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,492. On rating alone Almere City FC would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.92 goals a game over 64 matches for Jong AZ, against 1.92 over 74 for Almere City FC.

  • Defences are close

    Jong AZ concede 1.78 a game, Almere City FC 1.68.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    70% of Jong AZ matches, against 70% for Almere City FC. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jong AZ
Almere City FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.2
ELO
1535.4
64
ELO · Matches
74
1492.2
Current Team ELO
1535.4
1535.4
Current Opponent ELO
1492.2
-43.17
Current ELO Difference
43.17
0.44
Expected score
0.56
64
History Matches
74
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.19
Overperformance
51.66
0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
3.40
Goals for per game
3.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.60
2.90
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.97
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.21
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
74
1.36
PPG
1.50
40.6%
Win rate
44.6%
14.1%
Draw rate
16.2%
45.3%
Loss rate
39.2%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
70.3%
Over 2.5 rate
70.3%
53.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
38
1.07
PPG
1.32
30.0%
Win rate
39.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
13.2%
53.3%
Loss rate
47.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.1%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.7%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
30
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.92
76.6%
Scoring rate
83.8%
62.5%
BTTS rate
66.2%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.68
70.0%
Scoring rate
84.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
68.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
74
1.92
Goals Mean
1.92
1.59
Goals Std
1.51
76.6%
Scored 1+ rate
83.8%
53.1%
Scored 2+ rate
54.1%
37.5%
Scored 3+ rate
31.1%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
1.68
82.8%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.89
76.7%
Conceding rate
84.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
74
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.32
Conceded Std
1.24
53.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.1%
26.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
74
0.91
Result entropy
0.93
2.25
Goal Difference Std
1.96
8.93
Stability score
6.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
72
16
Lead Matches
18
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.78
28
Trailing Matches
25
21.4%
Non-loss rate
28.0%
10.7%
Trailing Win Rate
16.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
11
1.14
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.45
34
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.77
1.67
Portability PPG Range
2.20
42.69
Portability Score
39.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-43.17
PPG-0.14
GF0.00
GA0.11
PPG-1.33
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate14.2%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score1.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate9.0%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score3.22
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Current Team ELO-43.17
Current Opponent ELO43.17
Current ELO Difference-86.34
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jong AZ

L
Roda2–1Jong AZ30 Oct · away
Pick: Roda 55% · hit
W
Jong AZ5–4Helmond Sport23 Oct · home
Pick: Jong AZ 48% · hit
D
VVV Venlo4–4Jong AZ16 Oct · away
Pick: VVV Venlo 55% · missed
W
Jong AZ2–1Jong Utrecht31 Aug · home
Pick: Jong AZ 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Almere City FC

W
Waalwijk1–2Almere City FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Almere City FC 40% · hit
W
Telstar0–2Almere City FC27 Oct · away
Pick: Almere City FC 40% · hit
L
Almere City FC2–3Roda23 Oct · home
Pick: Almere City FC 63% · missed
L
Emmen2–1Almere City FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Almere City FC 37% · missed
W
De Graafschap1–4Almere City FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Almere City FC 50% · hit

About this match

Jong AZ and Almere City FC meet in Eerste Divisie on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Alkmaar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Jong AZ win 29.3%, draw 22.5%, Almere City FC win 48.2%. The pick is Almere City FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.9%. Both teams to score: 66.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.