ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

Dordrecht vs NAC Breda

Dordrecht Home · Elo 1,452
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
NAC Breda Away · Elo 1,452
GN Bouw Stadion, Dordrecht Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dordrecht win
Dordrecht winPick
43.4%
Draw
27.4%
NAC Breda win
29.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.9%
Under 2.542.1%

How much we know

Dordrecht history70 matches
NAC Breda history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dordrecht are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,452 against 1,452. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Dordrecht score more

    1.43 goals a game over 70 matches for Dordrecht, against 1.15 over 65 for NAC Breda.

  • Defences are close

    Dordrecht concede 1.59 a game, NAC Breda 1.68.

  • Dordrecht games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Dordrecht matches, against 49% for NAC Breda. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dordrecht
NAC Breda
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.3
ELO
1451.6
70
ELO · Matches
65
1452.3
Current Team ELO
1451.6
1451.6
Current Opponent ELO
1452.3
0.69
Current ELO Difference
-0.69
0.50
Expected score
0.50
70
History Matches
65
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.30
Overperformance
47.68
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.70
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
65
1.34
PPG
0.95
37.1%
Win rate
21.5%
22.9%
Draw rate
30.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
47.7%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
61.4%
Over 2.5 rate
49.2%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
31
1.55
PPG
0.77
45.0%
Win rate
16.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
29.0%
35.0%
Loss rate
54.8%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
40
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.15
74.3%
Scoring rate
63.1%
52.9%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
54.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
65
1.43
Goals Mean
1.15
1.23
Goals Std
1.24
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
63.1%
41.4%
Scored 2+ rate
32.3%
18.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.59
Goals against per game
1.68
75.7%
Conceding rate
86.2%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.87
70.0%
Conceding rate
90.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
65
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.55
Conceded Std
1.22
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.2%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.5%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
65
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
2.28
Goal Difference Std
1.76
2.45
Stability score
4.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
65
20
Lead Matches
14
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.69
24
Trailing Matches
32
20.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
9.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
43
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.74
18
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.45
Portability PPG Range
1.43
50.92
Portability Score
49.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO0.69
PPG0.39
GF0.27
GA-0.09
PPG-0.67
PPG0.78
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate11.2%
Scored 2+ rate9.1%
Scored 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.87
History Matches5
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-2.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.65
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate22.9%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate3.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score1.15
Rest days0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.79
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO0.69
Current Opponent ELO-0.69
Current ELO Difference1.38
Expected score0.00
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dordrecht

L
Jong Utrecht3–2Dordrecht2 Nov · away
Pick: Dordrecht 48% · missed
L
SC Genemuiden3–2Dordrecht28 Oct · away
Pick: Dordrecht 40% · missed
L
Dordrecht2–4VVV Venlo24 Oct · home
Pick: Dordrecht 37% · missed
W
Jong PSV U210–1Dordrecht19 Oct · away
Pick: Jong PSV U21 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

NAC Breda

W
Jong PSV U210–2NAC Breda2 Nov · away
Pick: Jong PSV U21 42% · missed
W
JOS Watergraafsmeer1–3NAC Breda28 Oct · away
Pick: NAC Breda 42% · hit
D
NAC Breda1–1Heracles23 Oct · home
Pick: Heracles 41% · missed
W
Helmond Sport0–2NAC Breda16 Oct · away
Pick: Helmond Sport 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dordrecht and NAC Breda meet in Eerste Divisie on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at GN Bouw Stadion, Dordrecht. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Dordrecht win 43.4%, draw 27.4%, NAC Breda win 29.2%. The pick is Dordrecht win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.9%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.