ScoreProb
J3 League Japan Round 16 2026

FC Gifu vs Kitakyushu

FC Gifu Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kitakyushu Away · Elo 1,452
Gifu Memorial Center Nagaragawa Ball Field Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Gifu win
FC Gifu winPick
53.4%
Draw
19.3%
Kitakyushu win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%

How much we know

FC Gifu history66 matches
Kitakyushu history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Gifu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Gifu are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,452. On rating alone FC Gifu would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • FC Gifu score more

    1.44 goals a game over 66 matches for FC Gifu, against 1.14 over 71 for Kitakyushu.

  • Kitakyushu concede fewer

    FC Gifu concede 1.48 a game, Kitakyushu 1.27.

  • FC Gifu games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of FC Gifu matches, against 45% for Kitakyushu. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Gifu
Kitakyushu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.8
ELO
1451.7
66
ELO · Matches
71
1515.8
Current Team ELO
1451.7
1451.7
Current Opponent ELO
1515.8
64.10
Current ELO Difference
-64.10
0.59
Expected score
0.41
66
History Matches
71
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
50.97
Overperformance
46.64
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
2.05
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
71
1.38
PPG
1.30
39.4%
Win rate
36.6%
19.7%
Draw rate
19.7%
40.9%
Loss rate
43.7%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.2%
56.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.1%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.5%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
39
1.36
PPG
1.33
39.4%
Win rate
38.5%
18.2%
Draw rate
17.9%
42.4%
Loss rate
43.6%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
33
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.14
74.2%
Scoring rate
76.1%
59.1%
BTTS rate
52.1%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.23
72.7%
Scoring rate
71.8%
60.6%
BTTS rate
48.7%
3.33
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
71
1.44
Goals Mean
1.14
1.34
Goals Std
0.89
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
29.6%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
7.0%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.27
81.8%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.28
84.8%
Conceding rate
71.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
71
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.22
Conceded Std
1.16
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.2%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.5%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
71
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.47
4.18
Stability score
4.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
67
19
Lead Matches
18
63.2%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
21
37.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
39
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
23
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.33
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
3.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.10
Portability PPG Range
1.53
52.02
Portability Score
47.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO64.10
PPG0.08
GF0.30
GA0.22
PPG1.33
PPG0.03
PPG1.00
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate12.8%
Scored 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std1.35
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate1.2%
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score-0.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.28
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate4.2%
Trailing Win Rate20.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score4.11
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO64.10
Current Opponent ELO-64.10
Current ELO Difference128.2
Expected score0.18
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Gifu

W
FC Ryukyu2–3FC Gifu3 Nov · away
Pick: FC Gifu 57% · hit
W
FC Gifu1–0Osaka31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gifu 53% · hit
L
Roasso Kumamoto2–1FC Gifu25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gifu 51% · missed
W
FC Gifu2–1Sagamihara21 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gifu 48% · hit
W
FC Gifu1–0Fukushima United17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gifu 59% · hit

Kitakyushu

L
Kitakyushu0–1Biwako Shiga3 Nov · home
Pick: Kitakyushu 50% · missed
W
Renofa Yamaguchi0–2Kitakyushu31 Oct · away
Pick: Renofa Yamaguchi 36% · missed
W
Kitakyushu3–1Parceiro Nagano25 Oct · home
Pick: Kitakyushu 46% · hit
L
Fukushima United2–1Kitakyushu21 Oct · away
Pick: Fukushima United 39% · hit
W
Kitakyushu3–1Osaka17 Oct · home
Pick: Kitakyushu 37% · hit

About this match

FC Gifu and Kitakyushu meet in J3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Gifu Memorial Center Nagaragawa Ball Field. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Gifu win 53.4%, draw 19.3%, Kitakyushu win 27.2%. The pick is FC Gifu win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.5%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.