ScoreProb
J3 League Japan Round 16 2026

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kanazawa

Matsumoto Yamaga Home · Elo 1,443
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kanazawa Away · Elo 1,467
Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Matsumoto Yamaga win
Matsumoto Yamaga winPick
39.6%
Draw
27.0%
Kanazawa win
33.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Matsumoto Yamaga history66 matches
Kanazawa history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Matsumoto Yamaga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,443 against 1,467. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.26 goals a game over 66 matches for Matsumoto Yamaga, against 1.33 over 67 for Kanazawa.

  • Defences are close

    Matsumoto Yamaga concede 1.30 a game, Kanazawa 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Matsumoto Yamaga matches, against 51% for Kanazawa. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Matsumoto Yamaga
Kanazawa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1443.4
ELO
1467.5
66
ELO · Matches
67
1443.4
Current Team ELO
1467.5
1467.5
Current Opponent ELO
1443.4
-24.10
Current ELO Difference
24.10
0.47
Expected score
0.53
66
History Matches
67
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.18
Overperformance
48.21
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.70
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
67
1.14
PPG
1.39
27.3%
Win rate
40.3%
31.8%
Draw rate
17.9%
40.9%
Loss rate
41.8%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.7%
47.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.7%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
33
1.26
PPG
1.15
28.6%
Win rate
30.3%
40.0%
Draw rate
24.2%
31.4%
Loss rate
45.5%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
35
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.33
69.7%
Scoring rate
76.1%
51.5%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.06
74.3%
Scoring rate
78.8%
54.3%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.26
Goals Mean
1.33
1.13
Goals Std
1.20
69.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
34.3%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
72.7%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.33
71.4%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.23
Conceded Std
1.16
34.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.3%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
67
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.67
1.30
Stability score
5.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
66
21
Lead Matches
19
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.81
18
Trailing Matches
21
27.8%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.85
Rest days
75.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
49
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
14
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.51
66.51
Portability Score
70.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-24.10
PPG-0.25
GF-0.07
GA0.00
PPG-0.33
PPG0.11
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate3.6%
Scored 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate0.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-4.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate13.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-3.97
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-24.10
Current Opponent ELO24.10
Current ELO Difference-48.21
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Matsumoto Yamaga

L
Kamatamare Sanuki1–0Matsumoto Yamaga3 Nov · away
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 40% · hit
W
Fukushima United1–3Matsumoto Yamaga31 Oct · away
Pick: Fukushima United 37% · missed
L
Matsumoto Yamaga0–2Renofa Yamaguchi25 Oct · home
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 45% · missed
W
Matsumoto Yamaga2–0Thespakusatsu Gunma21 Oct · home
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 52% · hit
L
Parceiro Nagano2–1Matsumoto Yamaga18 Oct · away
Pick: Parceiro Nagano 41% · hit

Kanazawa

L
Kanazawa0–2Parceiro Nagano3 Nov · home
Pick: Kanazawa 43% · missed
W
Kanazawa4–0Thespakusatsu Gunma31 Oct · home
Pick: Kanazawa 55% · hit
W
Biwako Shiga1–5Kanazawa25 Oct · away
Pick: Biwako Shiga 40% · missed
L
Kamatamare Sanuki3–1Kanazawa21 Oct · away
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 40% · hit
L
Kanazawa0–1Nara Club17 Oct · home
Pick: Kanazawa 52% · missed

About this match

Matsumoto Yamaga and Kanazawa meet in J3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:30 UTC. The match is played at Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Matsumoto Yamaga win 39.6%, draw 27.0%, Kanazawa win 33.4%. The pick is Matsumoto Yamaga win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.