ScoreProb
J3 League Japan Round 16 2026

Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Osaka

Thespakusatsu Gunma Home · Elo 1,453
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Osaka Away · Elo 1,496
Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma, Maebashi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Osaka win
Thespakusatsu Gunma win
31.8%
Draw
24.9%
Osaka winPick
43.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Thespakusatsu Gunma history66 matches
Osaka history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Osaka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Osaka are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,496 against 1,453. On rating alone Osaka would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.42 goals a game over 66 matches for Thespakusatsu Gunma, against 1.30 over 67 for Osaka.

  • Osaka concede fewer

    Thespakusatsu Gunma concede 1.77 a game, Osaka 1.01.

  • Thespakusatsu Gunma games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Thespakusatsu Gunma matches, against 43% for Osaka. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Osaka
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1453.4
ELO
1496.4
66
ELO · Matches
67
1453.4
Current Team ELO
1496.4
1496.4
Current Opponent ELO
1453.4
-43.05
Current ELO Difference
43.05
0.44
Expected score
0.56
66
History Matches
67
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
47.39
Overperformance
49.72
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
2.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
67
1.15
PPG
1.52
30.3%
Win rate
40.3%
24.2%
Draw rate
31.3%
45.5%
Loss rate
28.4%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
62.7%
56.1%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
33
1.15
PPG
1.36
27.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
36.4%
39.4%
Loss rate
30.3%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
33
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.30
72.7%
Scoring rate
70.1%
60.6%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.12
63.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
48.5%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.42
Goals Mean
1.30
1.37
Goals Std
1.32
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.1%
40.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.77
Goals against per game
1.01
80.3%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.00
69.7%
Conceding rate
72.7%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.77
Conceded Mean
1.01
1.40
Conceded Std
0.94
48.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.4%
31.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.0%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.9%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.9%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
67
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.54
3.18
Stability score
1.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
66
16
Lead Matches
9
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.85
25
Trailing Matches
20
16.0%
Non-loss rate
45.0%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
40
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
22
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.21
Portability PPG Range
0.90
47.78
Portability Score
56.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-43.05
PPG-0.37
GF0.13
GA0.76
PPG-1.67
PPG-0.21
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate8.1%
Scored 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.75
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.76
Conceded Std0.46
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate20.1%
Conceded 3+ rate25.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.54
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score2.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.14
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate3.5%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.31
Portability Score-8.51
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Current Team ELO-43.05
Current Opponent ELO43.05
Current ELO Difference-86.10
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Thespakusatsu Gunma

L
Nara Club3–0Thespakusatsu Gunma3 Nov · away
Pick: Nara Club 50% · hit
L
Kanazawa4–0Thespakusatsu Gunma31 Oct · away
Pick: Kanazawa 55% · hit
W
Thespakusatsu Gunma1–0Kamatamare Sanuki24 Oct · home
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 38% · missed
L
Matsumoto Yamaga2–0Thespakusatsu Gunma21 Oct · away
Pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 52% · hit
D
Gainare Tottori1–1Thespakusatsu Gunma17 Oct · away
Pick: Gainare Tottori 48% · missed

Osaka

L
FC Gifu1–0Osaka31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gifu 53% · hit
W
Osaka2–1Kagoshima United24 Oct · home
Pick: Kagoshima United 40% · missed
W
Osaka2–0Nara Club21 Oct · home
Pick: Osaka 58% · hit
L
Kitakyushu3–1Osaka17 Oct · away
Pick: Kitakyushu 37% · hit
D
Renofa Yamaguchi0–0Osaka30 Aug · away
Pick: Osaka 39% · missed

About this match

Thespakusatsu Gunma and Osaka meet in J3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma, Maebashi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Thespakusatsu Gunma win 31.8%, draw 24.9%, Osaka win 43.3%. The pick is Osaka win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.