ScoreProb
3. Liga Germany Round 13 2026

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

FC Ingolstadt 04 Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fortuna Düsseldorf Away · Elo 1,488
Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Ingolstadt 04 win
FC Ingolstadt 04 winPick
54.2%
Draw
18.8%
Fortuna Düsseldorf win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

How much we know

FC Ingolstadt 04 history67 matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Ingolstadt 04 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Ingolstadt 04 are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,488. On rating alone FC Ingolstadt 04 would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.72 goals a game over 67 matches for FC Ingolstadt 04, against 1.55 over 64 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.

  • Defences are close

    FC Ingolstadt 04 concede 1.49 a game, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of FC Ingolstadt 04 matches, against 61% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Fortuna Düsseldorf
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.4
ELO
1487.9
67
ELO · Matches
64
1516.4
Current Team ELO
1487.9
1487.9
Current Opponent ELO
1516.4
28.52
Current ELO Difference
-28.52
0.54
Expected score
0.46
67
History Matches
64
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.53
Overperformance
48.90
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
1.90
Goals for per game
2.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.62
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.52
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
64
1.34
PPG
1.31
35.8%
Win rate
39.1%
26.9%
Draw rate
14.1%
37.3%
Loss rate
46.9%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
64.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
38.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
34
1.50
PPG
1.12
41.7%
Win rate
32.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
14.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
52.9%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.88
36
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.55
80.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
67.2%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.71
83.3%
Scoring rate
73.5%
69.4%
BTTS rate
58.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
64
1.72
Goals Mean
1.55
1.39
Goals Std
1.82
80.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
26.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.58
82.1%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.62
77.8%
Conceding rate
85.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
64
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.10
Conceded Std
1.27
44.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.38
0.90
Stability score
9.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
64
22
Lead Matches
18
59.1%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.91
22
Trailing Matches
22
36.4%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
22.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
23
Long Rest History Matches
33
1.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.03
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.72
Portability PPG Range
1.57
62.21
Portability Score
44.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO28.52
PPG0.03
GF0.17
GA-0.09
PPG1.00
PPG0.38
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate8.7%
Scored 3+ rate11.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.32
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate1.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches3
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.62
Stability score-8.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.56
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.24
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate4.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-0.85
Portability Score17.74
Rest days8.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO28.52
Current Opponent ELO-28.52
Current ELO Difference57.05
Expected score0.08
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Ingolstadt 04

D
Havelse1–1FC Ingolstadt 0431 Oct · away
Pick: FC Ingolstadt 04 45% · missed
W
FC Ingolstadt 042–1MSV Duisburg24 Oct · home
Pick: MSV Duisburg 46% · missed
W
FC Ingolstadt 041–0Rot-Weiß Essen17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Ingolstadt 04 48% · hit
W
Waldhof Mannheim0–3FC Ingolstadt 0414 Oct · away
Pick: Waldhof Mannheim 46% · missed
W
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach0–2FC Ingolstadt 0429 Aug · away
Pick: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 47% · missed

Fortuna Düsseldorf

D
Fortuna Düsseldorf0–0SV Meppen30 Oct · home
Pick: SV Meppen 45% · missed
D
Hansa Rostock1–1Fortuna Düsseldorf24 Oct · away
Pick: Hansa Rostock 65% · missed
L
Fortuna Düsseldorf1–3FC Saarbrücken17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 48% · hit
W
Preußen Münster1–2Fortuna Düsseldorf14 Oct · away
Pick: Preußen Münster 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf meet in 3. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Ingolstadt 04 win 54.2%, draw 18.8%, Fortuna Düsseldorf win 27.0%. The pick is FC Ingolstadt 04 win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.